vr46
β ββ ββ ββ
Posts: 957
|
Post by vr46 on Feb 27, 2024 15:16:20 GMT -6
You can tilt at this windmill all you want, but these things are facts. 1. In today's NFL the QB position is by far the biggest key to a team's long term success in all of professional sports. 2. The only way you have a chance to get a game changer at QB at the beginning of their career is through the draft. Yes, it's a gamble that usually doesn't get you a true franchise altering player and it costs a fortune to move up to do it, but teams keep doing it. That isn't proof that you're smarter than everyone in the NFL. I never claimed to be smarter than anyone, but a whole lot of you do. Teams keep doing it and failing at it. OK. thanks for your wisdom. Are you actually that obtuse?
|
|
drhoades
β ββ ββ ββ
Posts: 1,221
|
Post by drhoades on Feb 27, 2024 15:35:20 GMT -6
I never claimed to be smarter than anyone, but a whole lot of you do. Teams keep doing it and failing at it. OK. thanks for your wisdom. Are you actually that obtuse? i would call thinking you need to move up to get a QB so you can compete in todays game obtuse
|
|
|
Post by 1angryviking on Feb 27, 2024 16:04:11 GMT -6
You can tilt at this windmill all you want, but these things are facts. 1. In today's NFL the QB position is by far the biggest key to a team's long term success in all of professional sports. 2. The only way you have a chance to get a game changer at QB at the beginning of their career is through the draft. Yes, it's a gamble that usually doesn't get you a true franchise altering player and it costs a fortune to move up to do it, but teams keep doing it. That isn't proof that you're smarter than everyone in the NFL. I never claimed to be smarter than anyone, but a whole lot of you do. Teams keep doing it and failing at it. OK. thanks for your wisdom. If you are going to tell other people, who "claim to be smarter" than you, and then you tell them they are wrong... aren't you actually saying you are smarter than them?
|
|
drhoades
β ββ ββ ββ
Posts: 1,221
|
Post by drhoades on Feb 27, 2024 16:12:09 GMT -6
I never claimed to be smarter than anyone, but a whole lot of you do. Teams keep doing it and failing at it. OK. thanks for your wisdom. If you are going to tell other people, who "claim to be smarter" than you, and then you tell them they are wrong... aren't you actually saying you are smarter than them? i never made that claim, only that i think they are wrong about moving up for a QB. That does not say "I am smarter," people who are very smart can be wrong. Not to mention that all i said at the outset was "when does free agency start?" That precipitated an attack.
|
|
tavike
β ββ ββ ββ
Posts: 4,097
|
Post by tavike on Feb 27, 2024 16:19:58 GMT -6
Playoff teams with 1st rd pick starters this past season stands at 11. Watson was injured and obviously Purdy and Dak are the non 1st rounders. Obviously Tom Brady was not a former 1st, but only 2 other non 1st rd QB's have won a SB in the last 20 years and in the Eagles case the non 1st rounder was an injury replacement. So in last 20 years you have Wilson and Brady as SB winners who were day 1 starters for their teams those seasons. Then you have Brad. If anything a highly drafted QB is becoming more important then ever for playoffs or a deep playoff run as time moves on Here are the 33 QB's Drafted in the first Round of Each Draft the last 11 years # of the 33 that have made it to a AFC/NFC Champ game: 4 # that have made it to SB: 3 # that won a SB: 1 23: Bryce Young - CJ Stroud - Anthony Richardson 22: Kenny Picket 21: Trev Laurence - Zac Wilson - Trey Lance - Justin Fields - Mac Jones 20: Joe Burrow - Tua Tag - Justin Herbert - Jordan Love 19: Kyler Murray - Daniel Jones - Dwayne Haskins 18: Baker Mayfield - Sam Darnald - Josh Allen - Josh Rosen - Lamar Jackson 17: Mitch Trubisky - Pat Mahomes - Deshaun Watson 16: Jared Goff - Carson Wentz - Paxton Lynch 15: Jameis Winston - Marcus Mariotta 14: Blake Bortles - Johnny Manziel - Teddy Bridgewater 13: EJ ManualOf those 33 Players 18 taken Top 5 Pics # of the 18 top 5 pics that have made it to a AFC/NFC Champ game: 2 # that have made it to SB: 2 # that won a SB: 0
Bryce Young - CJ Stroud - A Richardson Trev Laurence - Zac Wilson - Trey Lance Joe Burrow - Tua Tag Kyler Murray Baker Mayfield - Sam Darnald Mitch Trubisky Jared Goff - Carson Wentz Jameis Winston - Marcus Marriota Blake Bortles EJ ManuelNumber, in my opinion, worth trading up for: 3 (Stroud, Burrow, Goff). As I've said before it isn't necessarily that scouting of QB's is so bad, but rather so much depends on the environment that they go to. Which is why many of the QB's not taken in the top 5 picks often realize just as much if not more success than those taken at the top of round 1. In short high draft pics often go to crap teams and they don't have the coaching, the support systems or a winning culture to promote confidence and success. In our case, we have a lot of what a young QB will need to succeed eventually, so unless you are trading up for a generational talent...I just don't think the cost is worth the risk and you'd be better off just picking at 11. I do think Maye and Williams are two of the best QB prospects to come out in years and I would be tell you I'd be OK with trading up to for either of them but I don't see either slipping to 3 or lower where we might have a shot. I think between fit and probability if neither of those 2 fall the team would be better off either taking the best QB available at 11 or trading back and taking one between 12-30. The cost to trade up for any of the rest is just too much capital for a complete crap shoot. And for all of those in favor of trading up and doing whatever it takes to get one of these guys....that is what every team that drafted the 15 top 5 picks that haven't done shit thought! And if you go back to the original 33 here is how I see them: True Franchise QB: Mahomes, Allen, Burrow Maybe Franchise QB: Goff, Herbert, Jackson, Tua Too early to tell: Stroud, Love, Mayfield Not enough data to even gauge: Richardson, Young One last note, while the list is still pretty pathetic overall, the last 10 years has been unusually kind to rookie QB's success as the league turned over at QB. Guys like Brady, Manning, Manning, Brees, Big Ben, Rivers & Rodgers all retired or were/are in the twilight of their careers (well past their primes). It's made early success easier which has led to higher confidence and a higher success rate. If you look at rookie QB's that came into the league in the 10 years before when that group was playing in their primes, 1st round QB success was substantially lower as early success was harder to come by. Moving forward that turnover window is done and young QB's are likely to revert back to having a more challenging time having early success as guys like Mahomes, Allen, Burrow and some of the other guys teetering on Fran QB status will make it harder to win, win early and go deep in the playoffs. Yea, and not a single QB drafted in any other round in the last 11 years has won a super bowl. So that's 0%. The point being the percentage rate of a 1st round success is higher than all other rounds combined. That is the whole point. Take the chance, if it doesn't work out, than take another one. If they decide to bring back Cousins, than for Gods sake go all in and sign every good free agent you can. Sign Barkley, Sign Josh Allen, sign Sneed, sign everyone you can. Stop taking the middle road, go one way or the other or wallow in mediocrity.
|
|
drhoades
β ββ ββ ββ
Posts: 1,221
|
Post by drhoades on Feb 27, 2024 16:29:36 GMT -6
Here are the 33 QB's Drafted in the first Round of Each Draft the last 11 years # of the 33 that have made it to a AFC/NFC Champ game: 4 # that have made it to SB: 3 # that won a SB: 1 23: Bryce Young - CJ Stroud - Anthony Richardson 22: Kenny Picket 21: Trev Laurence - Zac Wilson - Trey Lance - Justin Fields - Mac Jones 20: Joe Burrow - Tua Tag - Justin Herbert - Jordan Love 19: Kyler Murray - Daniel Jones - Dwayne Haskins 18: Baker Mayfield - Sam Darnald - Josh Allen - Josh Rosen - Lamar Jackson 17: Mitch Trubisky - Pat Mahomes - Deshaun Watson 16: Jared Goff - Carson Wentz - Paxton Lynch 15: Jameis Winston - Marcus Mariotta 14: Blake Bortles - Johnny Manziel - Teddy Bridgewater 13: EJ ManualOf those 33 Players 18 taken Top 5 Pics # of the 18 top 5 pics that have made it to a AFC/NFC Champ game: 2 # that have made it to SB: 2 # that won a SB: 0
Bryce Young - CJ Stroud - A Richardson Trev Laurence - Zac Wilson - Trey Lance Joe Burrow - Tua Tag Kyler Murray Baker Mayfield - Sam Darnald Mitch Trubisky Jared Goff - Carson Wentz Jameis Winston - Marcus Marriota Blake Bortles EJ ManuelNumber, in my opinion, worth trading up for: 3 (Stroud, Burrow, Goff). As I've said before it isn't necessarily that scouting of QB's is so bad, but rather so much depends on the environment that they go to. Which is why many of the QB's not taken in the top 5 picks often realize just as much if not more success than those taken at the top of round 1. In short high draft pics often go to crap teams and they don't have the coaching, the support systems or a winning culture to promote confidence and success. In our case, we have a lot of what a young QB will need to succeed eventually, so unless you are trading up for a generational talent...I just don't think the cost is worth the risk and you'd be better off just picking at 11. I do think Maye and Williams are two of the best QB prospects to come out in years and I would be tell you I'd be OK with trading up to for either of them but I don't see either slipping to 3 or lower where we might have a shot. I think between fit and probability if neither of those 2 fall the team would be better off either taking the best QB available at 11 or trading back and taking one between 12-30. The cost to trade up for any of the rest is just too much capital for a complete crap shoot. And for all of those in favor of trading up and doing whatever it takes to get one of these guys....that is what every team that drafted the 15 top 5 picks that haven't done shit thought! And if you go back to the original 33 here is how I see them: True Franchise QB: Mahomes, Allen, Burrow Maybe Franchise QB: Goff, Herbert, Jackson, Tua Too early to tell: Stroud, Love, Mayfield Not enough data to even gauge: Richardson, Young One last note, while the list is still pretty pathetic overall, the last 10 years has been unusually kind to rookie QB's success as the league turned over at QB. Guys like Brady, Manning, Manning, Brees, Big Ben, Rivers & Rodgers all retired or were/are in the twilight of their careers (well past their primes). It's made early success easier which has led to higher confidence and a higher success rate. If you look at rookie QB's that came into the league in the 10 years before when that group was playing in their primes, 1st round QB success was substantially lower as early success was harder to come by. Moving forward that turnover window is done and young QB's are likely to revert back to having a more challenging time having early success as guys like Mahomes, Allen, Burrow and some of the other guys teetering on Fran QB status will make it harder to win, win early and go deep in the playoffs. Yea, and not a single QB drafted in any other round in the last 11 years has won a super bowl. So that's 0%. The point being the percentage rate of a 1st round success is higher than all other rounds combined. That is the whole point. Take the chance, if it doesn't work out, than take another one. If they decide to bring back Cousins, than for Gods sake go all in and sign every good free agent you can. Sign Barkley, Sign Josh Allen, sign Sneed, sign everyone you can. Stop taking the middle road, go one way or the other or wallow in mediocrity. Russell Wilson 2014 Tom Brady 2015, 2017,2019, 2021 Nick Foles 2018 I do agree with your premise though. Bring back Kirk, Danielle and shore up the line play on both sides of the ball.
|
|
vr46
β ββ ββ ββ
Posts: 957
|
Post by vr46 on Feb 27, 2024 16:43:14 GMT -6
If you are going to tell other people, who "claim to be smarter" than you, and then you tell them they are wrong... aren't you actually saying you are smarter than them? i never made that claim, only that i think they are wrong about moving up for a QB. That does not say "I am smarter," people who are very smart can be wrong. Not to mention that all i said at the outset was "when does free agency start?" That precipitated an attack. Who attacked you?
|
|
|
Post by 1angryviking on Feb 27, 2024 16:52:55 GMT -6
If you are going to tell other people, who "claim to be smarter" than you, and then you tell them they are wrong... aren't you actually saying you are smarter than them? i never made that claim, only that i think they are wrong about moving up for a QB. That does not say "I am smarter," people who are very smart can be wrong. Not to mention that all i said at the outset was "when does free agency start?" That precipitated an attack. While telling other people in sarcastic way that they are wrong you are literally making the claim "you are smarter than them".
|
|
tavike
β ββ ββ ββ
Posts: 4,097
|
Post by tavike on Feb 27, 2024 16:55:48 GMT -6
Yea, and not a single QB drafted in any other round in the last 11 years has won a super bowl. So that's 0%. The point being the percentage rate of a 1st round success is higher than all other rounds combined. That is the whole point. Take the chance, if it doesn't work out, than take another one. If they decide to bring back Cousins, than for Gods sake go all in and sign every good free agent you can. Sign Barkley, Sign Josh Allen, sign Sneed, sign everyone you can. Stop taking the middle road, go one way or the other or wallow in mediocrity. Russell Wilson 2014 Tom Brady 2015, 2017,2019, 2021 Nick Foles 2018 I do agree with your premise though. Bring back Kirk, Danielle and shore up the line play on both sides of the ball. Not drafted in the last 11 years. Per the post.
|
|
vr46
β ββ ββ ββ
Posts: 957
|
Post by vr46 on Feb 27, 2024 16:56:21 GMT -6
If you are going to tell other people, who "claim to be smarter" than you, and then you tell them they are wrong... aren't you actually saying you are smarter than them? i never made that claim, only that i think they are wrong about moving up for a QB. That does not say "I am smarter," people who are very smart can be wrong. Not to mention that all i said at the outset was "when does free agency start?" That precipitated an attack. Here is what you actually said: "Wahhh wahhh wahh Blah blah blah Trade up for a wing and a prayer. When does free agency start? God I hate this draft crap" You then proceeded to diminish my entire response by ignoring the points I made and pretending my post only said teams keep trying and failing and neglecting to respond to the reason they keep trying. If not the draft, where would you find a franchise changing QB? Is the QB position by far the most important factor to a team's success in all of professional sports or not?
|
|
vr46
β ββ ββ ββ
Posts: 957
|
Post by vr46 on Feb 27, 2024 17:01:47 GMT -6
i never made that claim, only that i think they are wrong about moving up for a QB. That does not say "I am smarter," people who are very smart can be wrong. Not to mention that all i said at the outset was "when does free agency start?" That precipitated an attack. While telling other people in sarcastic way that they are wrong you are literally making the claim "you are smarter than them". I don't think reason is going to work with him. He comes across as one of those guys that thinks of himself as a man's man, while simultaneously constantly playing the victim card. For instance, in the post you are responding to he downplays his inflammatory post and then speciously claims he was "attacked".
|
|
budgrant1
β ββ ββ ββ
Competitive rebuild my ass...sell the team WILF
Posts: 2,657
|
Post by budgrant1 on Feb 28, 2024 7:39:56 GMT -6
So who are you trading up for? Williams is the only guy thatβs really worth the risk in my book. Maye has the right game for our system, but a lot of questions about the system he played in and how well that success will translate at the next level. And unless Chicago keeps 1 and drafts Harrison I donβt see either as attainable. After those twoβ¦there is not a single QB worth moving up for based on what is currently known. Danielβs is a horrible fit, McCarthy would be a 2nd Rd pic if there werenβt a ton of teams in need of QB. Are you going to bet the farm on a 2nd Rd talent? Either Maye or Williams would be fine to bet the farm on imo. I agree I donβt want Daniels
|
|