Daniel Jeremiah on Trade Up

ok, so lets trade our best players and a bunch of picks so we can get a QB in round one, that'll do it for sure. LOL
the 34 teams that have drafted a qb in round one since 2010 havent been very successful, except one.

Better not be penix, jj mcarthy or nix. It is daniels or maybe maye.

Daniels with JJ, TJ, and Addison is real scary. We pick up one of these stud backs like Jacobs or Barkley, and it's on like Donkey Kong. Of course our offensive line can't be trash either.

It's a fallacy to suggest that Kirk has no athleticism or mobility (at least before his injury).  He is generally very effective rolling out for example.  His biggest issue IMO is a below-average pocket presence and holding the ball too long at times.  By the time he tries to escape, it's generally too late.

And nobody, certainly not me, suggested that some level of "athleticism isn't needed".  I merely stated that it shouldn't be the first priority.  If athleticism is your top attribute, then we probably should go after Justin Fields.  For the record, if the Vikings could find a younger, much less expensive Kirk-clone QB who could put up numbers like Kirk, I'd be happy.  With all of the savings in salary, they could put a better team around the young guy.

Playoff teams with 1st rd pick starters this past season  stands at 11. Watson was injured and obviously Purdy and Dak are the non 1st rounders. Obviously Tom Brady was not a former 1st, but only 2 other non 1st rd QB's have won a SB in the last 20 years and in the Eagles case the non 1st rounder was an injury replacement. So in last 20 years you have Wilson and Brady as SB winners who were day 1 starters for their teams those seasons. Then you have Brad. If anything a highly drafted QB is becoming more important then ever for playoffs or a deep playoff run as time moves on.

Oops forgot Hurts was a 2nd rounder so make that 10 vs 4.

Said it before - I think Penix will go much later than most are predicting. His injury history is cringe worthy.

Nix looks like Sean Payton’s wet dream.

Here are the 33 QB's Drafted in the first Round of Each Draft the last 11 years

# of the 33  that have made it to a AFC/NFC Champ game:  4
# that have made it to SB:  3
# that won a SB:  1

23:  Bryce Young - CJ Stroud - Anthony Richardson
22:  Kenny Picket
21:  Trev Laurence - Zac Wilson - Trey Lance - Justin Fields - Mac Jones
20:  Joe Burrow - Tua Tag - Justin Herbert - Jordan Love
19:  Kyler Murray - Daniel Jones - Dwayne Haskins
18:  Baker Mayfield - Sam Darnald - Josh Allen - Josh Rosen - Lamar Jackson
17:  Mitch Trubisky - Pat Mahomes - Deshaun Watson
16:  Jared Goff - Carson Wentz - Paxton Lynch
15:  Jameis Winston - Marcus Mariotta
14:  Blake Bortles - Johnny Manziel - Teddy Bridgewater
13:  EJ Manual


Of those 33 Players 18 taken Top 5 Pics
# of the 18 top 5 pics that have made it to a AFC/NFC Champ game: 2
# that have made it to SB: 2
# that won a SB: 0

Bryce Young - CJ Stroud - A Richardson
Trev Laurence - Zac Wilson - Trey Lance
Joe Burrow - Tua Tag 
Kyler Murray 
Baker Mayfield - Sam Darnald
Mitch Trubisky
Jared Goff - Carson Wentz
Jameis Winston - Marcus Marriota
Blake Bortles
EJ Manuel

Number, in my opinion, worth trading up for:  3 (Stroud, Burrow, Goff).  As I've said before it isn't necessarily that scouting of QB's is so bad, but rather so much depends on the environment that they go to.  Which is why many of the QB's not taken in the top 5 picks often realize just as much if not more success than those taken at the top of round 1.  In short high draft pics often go to crap teams and they don't have the coaching, the support systems or a winning culture to promote confidence and success.  In our case, we have a lot of what a young QB will need to succeed eventually, so unless you are trading up for a generational talent...I just don't think the cost is worth the risk and you'd be better off just picking at 11.  I do think Maye and Williams are two of the best QB prospects to come out in years and I would be tell you I'd be OK with trading up to for either of them but I don't see either slipping to 3 or lower where we might have a shot.  I think between fit and probability if neither of those 2 fall the team would be better off either taking the best QB available at 11 or trading back and taking one between 12-30.  The cost to trade up for any of the rest is just too much capital for a complete crap shoot.  And for all of those in favor of trading up and doing whatever it takes to get one of these guys....that is what every team that drafted the 15 top 5 picks that haven't done shit thought!    

And if you go back to the original 33 here is how I see them:

True Franchise QB:  Mahomes, Allen, Burrow
Maybe Franchise QB:  Goff, Herbert, Jackson, Tua
Too early to tell:  Stroud, Love, Mayfield
Not enough data to even gauge:  Richardson, Young 

One last note, while the list is still pretty pathetic overall, the last 10 years has been unusually kind to rookie QB's success as the league turned over at QB.  Guys like Brady, Manning, Manning, Brees, Big Ben, Rivers & Rodgers all retired or were/are in the twilight of their careers (well past their primes).  It's made early success easier which has led to higher confidence and a higher success rate.  If you look at rookie QB's that came into the league in the 10 years before when that group was playing in their primes, 1st round QB success was substantially lower as early success was harder to come by.   Moving forward that turnover window is done and young QB's are likely to revert back to having a more challenging time having early success as guys like Mahomes, Allen, Burrow and some of the other guys teetering on Fran QB status will make it harder to win, win early and go deep in the playoffs.  
 

You can tilt at this windmill all you want, but these things are facts.

1. In today's NFL the QB position is by far the biggest key to a team's long term success in all of professional sports.

2. The only way you have a chance to get a game changer at QB at the beginning of their career is through the draft.

Yes, it's a gamble that usually doesn't get you a true franchise altering player and it costs a fortune to move up to do it, but teams keep doing it. That isn't proof that you're smarter than everyone in the NFL.