mjollnir
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Post by mjollnir on May 3, 2024 9:44:37 GMT -6
Free agents are way more valuable than day 2 and 3 picks anyways. Not necessarily. FA are have an higher hit rate and are more expensive yes, upside to become franchise cornerstonesโฆway less likely. FA are free agents for a reason. FA either canโt play to their cost, are older and on the decline, canโt stay healthy, have limitations to their game and havenโt lived up to expectations. Once in awhile you get a true cap casualty or a player who comes into their own after the factโฆ but they are few and far between. 25 year old perennial pro bowler donโt walk out of the building unless the scheme no longer fits or they are a head case/cancer. Those types of players are usually traded not let go via FA. Which is why Iโve been a proponent all along that itโs great to Have cap space to work with so you can pinpoint and bid what is needed to land the best candidates to fill a few holes , but you donโt build your team that way. 90% of the time you are over as young for what you get because you are desperate. With a free agent you know what you are buying and for the most part price vs. value is there. upside to become franchise cornerstonesโฆway less likely huh guys like Steve Young (San Francisco), Curt Warner (Arizona), Rich Gannon (Raiders), Curtis Martin (Jets), Simeon Rice (Tampa Bay), Reggie White (Green Bay), Drew Brees (New Orleans), Peyton Manning (Denver), Tom Brady (Tampa Bay), Charles Woodson (Green Bay), Keenan McCardell (Jacksonville), Deion Sanders (San Francisco and Dallas), Jerry Rice (Raiders the tuck rule away from the Super Bowl with them) would disagree with that premiss.
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mjollnir
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Post by mjollnir on May 3, 2024 10:05:34 GMT -6
I don't think anybody, at least in the context of this conversation, is suggesting a strategy of building the team through FA. In this case, FA is just a 1-year alternative to replace 2-3 draft picks that the Vikings won't have in 2025 (as it currently stands). After that, it's back to business as usual. I have no worries whatsoever about Turner exceling in the NFL. If JJ lives up to his potential, the draft capital given up to get these two players will look minor in comparison a couple of years down the road. Daniel Snyder tried building a short term winner years back by signing as many big names as he could at the time. It was an epic fail. Stan Kroenke and Les Snead did it and won the Super Bowl in 2021
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ppefan
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Post by ppefan on May 3, 2024 11:41:25 GMT -6
Its not the writers fault. He went to a draft strategy seminar run by Rick Speilman. Ha! I have always been a fan of the quality over quantity approach to the draft. But the obvious caveat is that you have to get those "quality" picks correct vs. the spray and pray method of bringing a bunch of lower pick guys and playing the odds that some of them work out. I totally agree with what you said. It is a crap shoot and I think it comes down to the coaches being clear about the needs and qualities they are looking for. The scouts finding the players that fit and the coaches ability to groom the player to be all he can be. I think one important factor that is very important is desire, heart, intelligence & intensity. The perfect example is Adam Thielen.
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Post by mountvike on May 3, 2024 14:35:25 GMT -6
Daniel Snyder tried building a short term winner years back by signing as many big names as he could at the time. It was an epic fail. Stan Kroenke and Les Snead did it and won the Super Bowl in 2021 The Rams did catch lightning in a bottle as they say. Jones tried in Dallas as well.
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Post by 1angryviking on May 3, 2024 15:05:43 GMT -6
QB is the most important position on the team and Edge is in the discussion for 2nd most... possibly solving both of those position for the next 10+ years in 1-2 drafts would be incredible.
If both McCarthy and Turner are hits on their rookie contracts... it would also mean a 350 million dollar in cap savings over comp veterans for the next 5 years.
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legion11
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Post by legion11 on May 3, 2024 15:15:36 GMT -6
Daniel Snyder tried building a short term winner years back by signing as many big names as he could at the time. It was an epic fail. Stan Kroenke and Les Snead did it and won the Super Bowl in 2021 They had a very solid infrastructure of players onboard that they drafted (Aaron Donald, Cooper Kupp). They then used a mixture of FA and trading picks for players already under contract (which isn't FA) to take a good team over the top into a champion. It was an interesting approach that blended all the different ways you can acquire players and Snead executed it perfectly. A good GM explores every option. KAM has made a mixture of good and bad moves in his tenure here, but he appears to be learning from the mistakes and gaining steam as he goes along.
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drhoades
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Post by drhoades on May 3, 2024 15:35:02 GMT -6
Free agents are way more valuable than day 2 and 3 picks anyways. Not necessarily. FA are have an higher hit rate and are more expensive yes, upside to become franchise cornerstonesโฆway less likely. FA are free agents for a reason. FA either canโt play to their cost, are older and on the decline, canโt stay healthy, have limitations to their game and havenโt lived up to expectations. Once in awhile you get a true cap casualty or a player who comes into their own after the factโฆ but they are few and far between. 25 year old perennial pro bowler donโt walk out of the building unless the scheme no longer fits or they are a head case/cancer. Those types of players are usually traded not let go via FA. Which is why Iโve been a proponent all along that itโs great to Have cap space to work with so you can pinpoint and bid what is needed to land the best candidates to fill a few holes , but you donโt build your team that way. 90% of the time you are over as young for what you get because you are desperate. Its straight math, 7 round draft, 3.5 year avg career, hit rate on draftees in rounds 2 and later. Free agents are WAY more valuable than picking a "hope he can play at this level" amateur. We drafted a franchise QB and impact defensive player in this draft (hopefully), it is already a hugely successful draft.
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Post by redbird87 on May 4, 2024 16:50:27 GMT -6
Not necessarily. FA are have an higher hit rate and are more expensive yes, upside to become franchise cornerstonesโฆway less likely. FA are free agents for a reason. FA either canโt play to their cost, are older and on the decline, canโt stay healthy, have limitations to their game and havenโt lived up to expectations. Once in awhile you get a true cap casualty or a player who comes into their own after the factโฆ but they are few and far between. 25 year old perennial pro bowler donโt walk out of the building unless the scheme no longer fits or they are a head case/cancer. Those types of players are usually traded not let go via FA. Which is why Iโve been a proponent all along that itโs great to Have cap space to work with so you can pinpoint and bid what is needed to land the best candidates to fill a few holes , but you donโt build your team that way. 90% of the time you are over as young for what you get because you are desperate. With a free agent you know what you are buying and for the most part price vs. value is there.ย ย upside to become franchise cornerstonesโฆway less likelyย ย ย huh guys like Steve Young (San Francisco), Curt Warner (Arizona), Rich Gannon (Raiders), Curtis Martin (Jets), Simeon Rice (Tampa Bay), Reggie White (Green Bay), Drew Brees (New Orleans), Peyton Manning (Denver), Tom Brady (Tampa Bay), Charles Woodson (Green Bay), Keenan McCardell (Jacksonville), Deion Sanders (San Francisco and Dallas), Jerry Rice (Raiders the tuck rule away from the Super Bowl with them) would disagree with that premiss.ย ย You kind of made my point. 1). Most of the players on this list became FA before the cap existed or shortly thereafter when it wasnโt as big an issue. 2). Most of your list with a few exceptions were all great players but well past their primes and on the decline. 3). And a few struck gold after the fact (Gannon, Brees). Only players on this list that became a FA in there prime and in somewhat a modern era after playing well was Curtis Martin and Simeon Rice and he was coming off injury and his worst year as a pro while wanting top dollar. So if you look at your list the only franchise cornerstones to come out of your list in their prime in the Sal Cap era are Brees, Martin and Rice. And only Martin and Rice had posted possible franchise type numbers and only Martin came without ?โs. Iโm not saying adding FA canโt be effective. But you donโt build your team thru FA. While the draft IS rouletteโฆ itโs still the best and most likely place to land real difference makers you can build around for a long time. And no, I donโt agree you get value for your money unless youโre playing in tier 2,3 and 4 of FA which is not where the best players exist. Do you really think EZRA is worth the contract he signed??? Do you really think Cousins at 35/36 is worth 100 M guaranteed coming off a torn Achilles on his plant foot?? Desperate teams always overpay!! And to be clearโฆ I am in no way stating the draft is all that! Itโs very low odds, but I think you have to strike a balance. All Iโve ever indicated is unless you want to overpay or bring on older players for short stints to see if they have anything left in the tank youโre likely not going to really improve your talent very often. More often than not itโs grass is greener syndrome. Ezra was. Turd here but heโs someone elseโs savior. And their turd will be our savior. Because 90% of FA are average to maybe just slightly above average at best unless youโre breaking the bank. And thatโs still no guaranteeโฆ..see Davenport! The good thing about FA is you at least usually have an idea that the person can function at the NFL levelโฆwhich is more than you can say about the draft.
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Vikeroo
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Post by Vikeroo on May 4, 2024 17:26:00 GMT -6
Not necessarily. FA are have an higher hit rate and are more expensive yes, upside to become franchise cornerstonesโฆway less likely. FA are free agents for a reason. FA either canโt play to their cost, are older and on the decline, canโt stay healthy, have limitations to their game and havenโt lived up to expectations. Once in awhile you get a true cap casualty or a player who comes into their own after the factโฆ but they are few and far between. 25 year old perennial pro bowler donโt walk out of the building unless the scheme no longer fits or they are a head case/cancer. Those types of players are usually traded not let go via FA. Which is why Iโve been a proponent all along that itโs great to Have cap space to work with so you can pinpoint and bid what is needed to land the best candidates to fill a few holes , but you donโt build your team that way. 90% of the time you are over as young for what you get because you are desperate. Its straight math, 7 round draft, 3.5 year avg career, hit rate on draftees in rounds 2 and later. Free agents are WAY more valuable than picking a "hope he can play at this level" amateur. We drafted a franchise QB and impact defensive player in this draft (hopefully), it is already a hugely successful draft. Lets use Phillips as an example as the Vikings could have used a 2nd pick to more then likely (over 50% chance) have found a guy to start at 1/3 the price for most of 4 years. FA is normally an expensive way to fill holes on a team and seldom has long term value for a franchise.
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drhoades
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Post by drhoades on May 4, 2024 19:28:23 GMT -6
Its straight math, 7 round draft, 3.5 year avg career, hit rate on draftees in rounds 2 and later. Free agents are WAY more valuable than picking a "hope he can play at this level" amateur. We drafted a franchise QB and impact defensive player in this draft (hopefully), it is already a hugely successful draft. ย Lets use Phillips as an example as the Vikings could have used a 2nd pick to more then likely (over 50% chance) have found a guy to start at 1/3 the price for most of 4 years. FA is normally an expensive way to fill holes on a team and seldom has long term value for a franchise. I think 50% is a generous guess. Especially when compared to a free agent who is a real live NFL player.
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Post by 1angryviking on May 4, 2024 20:28:22 GMT -6
Its straight math, 7 round draft, 3.5 year avg career, hit rate on draftees in rounds 2 and later. Free agents are WAY more valuable than picking a "hope he can play at this level" amateur. We drafted a franchise QB and impact defensive player in this draft (hopefully), it is already a hugely successful draft. Lets use Phillips as an example as the Vikings could have used a 2nd pick to more then likely (over 50% chance) have found a guy to start at 1/3 the price for most of 4 years. FA is normally an expensive way to fill holes on a team and seldom has long term value for a franchise. Yes, draft picks are cheaper than free agents. But, using Phillips as an example is a double edged sword in this scenario because his contract is relatively cheap and Phillips is more productive than most day 2 picks.
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Vikeroo
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Post by Vikeroo on May 4, 2024 21:22:56 GMT -6
Lets use Phillips as an example as the Vikings could have used a 2nd pick to more then likely (over 50% chance) have found a guy to start at 1/3 the price for most of 4 years. FA is normally an expensive way to fill holes on a team and seldom has long term value for a franchise. I think 50% is a generous guess. Especially when compared to a free agent who is a real live NFL player. Phillips was nothing special when he was signed and he is basically a high effort journeyman for us now. Actually 1st and 2nd round IDL is one of the safest picks you can make.
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Vikeroo
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Post by Vikeroo on May 4, 2024 21:28:49 GMT -6
Lets use Phillips as an example as the Vikings could have used a 2nd pick to more then likely (over 50% chance) have found a guy to start at 1/3 the price for most of 4 years. FA is normally an expensive way to fill holes on a team and seldom has long term value for a franchise. Yes, draft picks are cheaper than free agents. But, using Phillips as an example is a double edged sword in this scenario because his contract is relatively cheap and Phillips is more productive than most day 2 picks. Phillips is nothing special. He is a guy that plays football and tries really hard. Ok run defender and below average pass rusher. I mean Phillips has an almost 9M cap hit this year so kind of an expensive journeyman.
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Post by 1angryviking on May 4, 2024 22:11:38 GMT -6
Yes, draft picks are cheaper than free agents. But, using Phillips as an example is a double edged sword in this scenario because his contract is relatively cheap and Phillips is more productive than most day 2 picks. Phillips is nothing special. He is a guy that plays football and tries really hard. Ok run defender and below average pass rusher. I mean Phillips has an almost 9M cap hit this year so kind of an expensive journeyman. Compare Phillips to your average day 2 draft pick and the return is good to great. Also, I also think it's disingenuous to use the last year of his contract to frame his contract... he signed a 3 year contract averaging 6.5 million per year instead of the inflated last year you are referencing. Paying a proven guy like Phillips less than 3% of the cap is a better bet than hoping a player like Derrick Nnadi. Lastly, Phillips is not a "journeyman"; he played out his 4 year rookie contract, he chose the next team he wanted to play for and is going on his 3rd year with them.
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skolvike
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Post by skolvike on May 5, 2024 0:42:44 GMT -6
The Vikings won Day 1 of the draft. Any reasonable person would agree Too bad they did it by giving away days 2 and 3 for the next 2 years. EDIT: BTW, the Bears won the first day of the draft handily. Bears had the 1st and 9th overall. Their entire management team should be fired if they didn't, for God's sake.
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