15 years of 1st round QB's

www.cbssports.com/nfl/news/nfl-draft-2024-regrading-each-first-round-qb-pick-in-the-last-15-years-from-justin-fields-to-mark-sanchez/


Final tally
Over the last 15 years, there have been 46 QBs selected in the first round. Here's the final tally:

GRADE TOTAL PERCENT
Home run 7 15%
Solid result 3 6%
Mixed result 9 19%
Incomplete 4 8%
Miss 23 50%
If you combine home runs and solid/mixed results, that's 19 of 46 (41%) who at least left some level of positive impact. That's not necessarily an awful hit rate, considering the volatility of picks at every position. It's also not great! And it's obviously including a wide range of outcomes; Mark Sanchez and Deshaun Watson, for example, are both mixed results because their success was short-lived in their original homes, and yet the latter was far more productive during his days as a Texans starter.

As you may have guessed, the biggest takeaway is that it's hard to hit on superstars under center, even in the first round. Over the last 15 years, there are an average of three first-round quarterback picks per year. And over that entire span of 15 years, at least according to our rough assessment, only seven quarterbacks total have gone on to become "home runs," and that includes still-growing contemporary signal-callers like Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson.

That said, if you're preparing to go all in for the next hotshot under center, make sure you've done your homework, and/or ensured your future face of the franchise has a foundation that can support him! It's probably not a coincidence that so many quarterbacks end up providing mixed or disappointing results when the teams that draft them often tend to be in dire straits, hence their pathway to a Day 1 draft-day investment at the position. The best-case scenario, as was the case with phenoms like Mahomes, is when a present contender has an opportunity to plan for the future, adding a young prospect to an already-well-supported lineup. But that, of course, is easier said than done.