legion11
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Post by legion11 on Mar 16, 2024 14:15:34 GMT -6
R54 said it's best not to get too attached to a specific player in the draft process. I agree, the chances of the team actually getting "your guy" is tiny, and you just set yourself up for disappointment. For that reason, I always try to have several players all over the draft board that intrigue me for some reason - either a good fit on our team or just something about their game I like. I did this back in '22 and had a lot of fun with it. I took 2023 off but would like to give this another go.
Note: This first pass will be very sparse. I've just started to deep dive, but it will fill out as we go. I also rely heavily on other poster's input to build it out further. Also I'll probably have to re-slot several players up or down a round as we get more of an idea of things.
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legion11
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Post by legion11 on Mar 16, 2024 14:15:54 GMT -6
ROUND 1
Things are changing fast. Yesterday's trade all but assures we are moving up for a QB, but I'll fill this out anyway in case that plan doesn't come to fruition.
QB JJ McCarthy - I feel like he's the target at #4 (Arizona). Of all the top QBs he's the one that is more potential over production. I like how he competed at the Combine, he's got good poise, he commands a room well, and he's certainly athletic and accurate enough. The ultimate project form KOC to groom into a pro. Possibly also the highest boom/bust gamble, but I'm all in if that's the way they go.
DE Jalen Verse - He reminds me a lot of another FSU DE from just a couple years ago, Jermaine Johnson II in that they both have tremendous speed-to-power ability. If the QB situation goes sideways, this kid would be a fine consolation prize.
OT Troy Fautanu - either with a trade down or I like him with our new #23 pick. He looks a bit smaller/slimmer than the other big uglies, but he moves SO smooth. A great natural athlete with plenty of nasty to him - adding him would allow us to finally start thinking about getting out from under O'Neill's burdensome contract.
DT Jer'Zhan "Johnny" Newton ILLI - versatile 300 pound DL that can create havoc all along the line. A little bit on the shorter side, but uses his compact frame well to disrupt the offense. Has an advanced pass-rush plan, which shows he's a strategic player and not just coasting by on athletic talent.
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legion11
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Post by legion11 on Mar 16, 2024 14:16:06 GMT -6
ROUND 2
Yeah, we don't have a round 2 pick. But I'll do it anyway because you never know what might happen.
DT T'Vondre Sweat TEX - I love Harrison Phillips, he's one of the hardest working guys on the team. But we're just drastically undermanned on the D-Line. I don't recall which game it was, but at one point the opponent ran about 13 straight rushes on us and we were powerless to stop them. We need some BEEF in the trenches.
DT Braden Fiske FSU - had a great Combine and really raised his stock. Very active and seems to have a great passion for the game. Oh, and did I mention we need D-Line?
LB Edgerrin Cooper TEX AM - off ball linebackers seem to be getting phased out a bit, as more teams use safeties as a sort of sub-LB. But you still want a couple and I'm not sold on Cashman getting through 2 seasons consecutively without injury. Plus this guy is just an absolute beast.
WR Ladd McConkey UGA - great underneath guy that also has the speed to take it the distance if you're not careful. An expert route runner and has great feel/savvy for finding soft spots. I think of the Patriots offenses that used to torment opponents with Welker, Amendola, Edelman types that bled you to death with little 4, 5, 6 yard pickups play after play, seemingly whenever they needed it.
WR Ricky Pearsall FL - I started off thinking of him as McConkey Lite, believing he would be available a round later than Ladd. But his outstanding Combine performance and interviews seem to be elevating his stock considerably. He might go only 10-15 picks later at this point.
OT Kingsley Suamataia - he's big enough and athletic enough to overcome some inconsistencies/sloppiness in technique. I think he needs a year to be coached up, but would make an excellent swing tackle candidate while O'Neill's contract gets a little smaller in dead cap as each year goes on.
CB Max Melton RUTGERS - ok I'll admit it, I'm a sucker for athletic traits. And this guy blew up at the Combine. He can play slot or perimeter at the college level, I'm interested to see if that translates to the pros - 5'11" is a borderline outside corner for me.
WR Malachi Corley WKY - The "RAC King", he's got some Deebo-like qualities to his game. Hasn't developed a full route tree yet and I'd be more comfortable with him in the 3rd, but I don't think he lasts that long. Will require some patience and a creative OC to maximize his potential, but what a weapon in the right situation!
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legion11
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Post by legion11 on Mar 16, 2024 14:16:19 GMT -6
ROUND 3
LB Cedric Gray - a smooth athlete than can cover, shoot the gap on run plays, and rush the passer when called to do so. He just seems like a natural.
G Cooper Beebe - I'm not sold on Brandel (or Ingram if I'm being honest), so it would be nice to have another option on the IOL. This guy is strong and tough, but has the dreaded "short arms" and is a bit of an undisciplined lunger. The latter can be corrected, the former... he'll just have to make do with better technique.
G Christian Haynes - I don't see any outstanding traits with this guy, but I don't see any glaring weaknesses either - just a sturdy player who gets the job done. Has a tendency to latch on at times when he's beat.
WR Jalen McMillian - the third in a trio of terrific Washington receivers. Good slot option. A bit limited physically compared to many of the marvelous athletes in this WR crop, but he still finds a way to get good production.
CB Renardo Green FSU - smooth coverage guy, has 2nd round tape but less than elite athletic traits drops him to the 3rd. Is a bit too handsy and will have to clean things up or get flagged a lot at the next level.
CB Khyree Jackson ORE - BIG (6'4") physical perimeter corner but still very raw. Only started 14 games in college and still hasn't put it all together yet. Might need to be stashed towards the bottom of the depth chart for a season while he gets coached up.
OG Zak Zinter MICH - 2nd round guard who drops due to a broken leg suffered last season. Looks to be on track to contribute some in 2024, but really you're drafting him as and investment in the future.
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legion11
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Post by legion11 on Mar 16, 2024 14:16:31 GMT -6
ROUND 4
CB Cam Hart - ND - great size/length, looks like a prototypical boundary corner. His speed is ok, but not great, limiting him to a leverage type player. I'm also a little troubled by his agility (3 cone, shuttle), but it feels like there's something there to work with.
OLB/EDGE Gabriel Murphy - UCLA - short arms and a 6'2" body are what keeps him out of being a Day 2 pick. His explosive measurements (40 yard dash, 10 yard split, broad and vert jumps) were all in the elite level for his position. Usually finds a way to make the play even against larger OL. Maybe not a great idea to take another undersized LB when we already have one wearing the green dot (Pace), but I just can't give up on this guy.
OLB/EDGE Mohamed Kamara - COL ST - another try-hard edge player that overcomes substandard height with attitude. I'm easily won over by guys that fight through to the whistle on every snap, because that's one thing you can't instill in a player, either they have it or they don't.
S Dadrion Taylor Demerson - TEX TECH - just average height/weight but runs well and has tremendous versatility as both a high safety or down in the slot. Blistering football IQ and anticipation. Also blows scouts away with his engaging personality and leadership traits. Reminds me of a young(er) Cam Bynum.
OC Beaux Limmer ARK - high IQ both on the field and off, can make all the pre-snap adjustments and identifies twists and stunts well. Could use another ~10 pounds of good weight but plays strong and is already a proficient run blocker. Has occasional lapses in pass pro and needs to shore that up a bit.
TE Cade Stover OSU - looked smallish to me out of pads but has that country boy "farmer strength." Pushed the blocking sled around easily. Catches well and has + athleticism as a receiving option. Basketball background shows through. A late conversion to TE from the defensive side of the ball, so he's still a bit raw. I see that as a positive, because it tells me he still has lots of upside to unlock.
WR Luke McCaffrey RICE - lacks the athletic traits of his father and brother but you know he's going to be the ultimate technician. A former QB converted to WR, he hasn't been at it long but already displays a keen understanding of the position. Coming from that family, it's no surprise. Limited ceiling, but low bust rate makes him a nice Day 3 pickup.
WR Brendan Rice USC - not a great separation guy, but plays like an NBA power forward. Strong and aggressive at the catch point, can he round out the rough points of his game?
DT DeWayne Carter DUKE - 3 year captain, high football IQ and leadership qualities. Unselfish player, he often disrupts the offensive play and sets up a teammate to clean it up and take the credit. Projects as more of a 4-3 3T, but we run some hybrid fronts and I think Flores is clever enough to find a way to use him as a rotational piece.
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legion11
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Post by legion11 on Mar 16, 2024 14:16:42 GMT -6
ROUND 5
RB Ray Davis - KY - won't "wow" anyone with athletic traits, but he's a bowling ball runner that picks up the tough yards. Has fought through plenty of adversity in life and is battle-tested. Able to contribute as a pass-catcher out of the backfield.
RB Isaac Guerendo - LOU - I had this guy as a sleeper in the late rounds and then he went and ran a 4.33 and jumped 41.5" at Indy. Eye-popping physical traits but maybe just average vision and cutting ability as a runner? Can pass block and catches the ball well, giving him 3-down capability. Isn't afraid to lower the boom when out of options, and is going to force a lot of DBs into making business decisions.
TE Theo Johnson - PSU - With Hock out for awhile and Muse in his contract year, it wouldn't hurt to bolster the TE group. Like most Penn St guys, his testing and traits looked off the charts. I'm a little worried he might be more of a "workout warrior" than a player, as the production doesn't match the eye test. But what terrific clay to work with!
EDGE Javon Solomon TROY - lacks ideal size/length (6'1") but has terrific hustle and block shedding moves. Highly productive but can get swallowed up by long-armed tackles.
CB Kamal Hadden TENN - good man/press corner with strong ball skills. Lacks ideal long speed and likely needs safety help over the top.
IOL Mason McCormick SDST - blew up the Combine with his athletic testing. Is a bit stiff and can get himself out of position at times. High character, 3 time captain and started 57 games showing strong durability. Decent pick in the 4th but if he's still here in the 5th I wouldn't hesitate to snap him up.
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legion11
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Post by legion11 on Mar 16, 2024 14:17:00 GMT -6
ROUND 6
DE Brennan Jackson - WASH ST - size and traits are "good enough" but this guy shines as bright as anyone in terms of motor and sheer love of the game. If Pace showed us anything last year it's that these types areworth taking a shot on. Lowish ceiling might limit him to career depth guy, but he's never going to take a play off and will survive in the league on sheer tenacity.
C Tanor Bortolini - WIS - elite movement skills, but lacking a bit in anchor. Normally that phrase gives me the Bradbury shivers, but it's worth spending a 6 to see if an NFL strength program can shore up that deficiency. Plus, if Garrett gets hurt, the play style won't change much.
OT Garrett Greenfield - SDSU - speaking of Garretts... moves really well for a big man. Needs more upper body strength and improved focus on technique. LT/RT versatility gives him Swing backup capability for a year or two while he develops.
TE Tip Reimann - ILL - my favorite sleeper. He's a giant ogre that pushed the blocking sleds around like they were on ice. Huge hands and wingspan make him an easy possession target for redzone attempts or just moving the chains on short yardage. Moves better than you'd expect for a big dude and can threaten the seam. His hands are questionable, he has some concentration drops and is subpar in contested situations. Ideal TE3 guy that you can put in on jumbo packages when you need to move a pile, until he refines his game and maybe climbs up the ladder. Also he's crazy and believes birds aren't real, so he's probably worth some funny Gronk-like quotes.
LB Maris Liufau ND - a bit of a wildcard that will miss some reads but plays at 100mph at all times. Throw him on STs early and see if he can figure it out over time.
CB Johnny Dixon PSU - sticky, feisty coverage guy that will need to overcome below average traits to succeed at the next level.
OL Brandon Coleman TCU - just a touch short at 6'4" (LoL) but has good mass, huge hands, large wingspan, and elite explosive traits. On paper this guy looks like a 1st rounder, but he doesn't play up to the potential. Why not? Is it fixable? He gets beat frequently on counter moves and lacks some aggression in the run game. Can a good coaching staff iron out these problems and find a diamond in the rough?
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legion11
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Post by legion11 on Mar 16, 2024 14:17:13 GMT -6
ROUND 7
LB Edefuan Ulofoshio - WASH - very raw and questionable instincts, but nice traits. Looks like a strong ST candidate/ depth linebacker that might need a couple years to work his way into the defensive rotation.
DE Myles Cole - TEX TECH - big dude with an immense wingspan. Not very dynamic but might develop into a great space/block eater as a 3-4 End.
OLB/EDGE Jalyx Hunt - HOUSTON CHRISTIAN D2 - good speed and length. Desperately needs to add bulk and muscle to survive in the NFL as anything other than a DPR specialist. Probably needs to redshirt a year but has tons of athleticism and intelligence to make the gamble potentially pay off.
OL Cadean Wallace - PSU - way overshadowed by his OT teammate Fashanu, but he might have better fundamentals. Reminds me a bit of Jamaree Salyer from a couple years ago - just a solid, lunchpail type that doesn't do anything flashy but can get you out of a game if the starter goes down unexpectedly. Hey, it's the 7th round so you can do a lot worse than a sturdy, dependable backup with starting potential down the road.
LB Tyrise Knight UTEP - ultra-productive off-ball LB that fills up the stat sheet. A little bit limited and may never be more than an average coverage backer, but wow what tackle production! He's a bit of a freelancer at times and will occasionally give up gap integrity seeking to knife through for yet another tackle. Like Eric Wilson, you just have to live with a few blown plays from time to time to get the big splash plays. Can he learn to reign it in a bit with proper coaching? As a 7th round pick or UDFA I think it's worth the risk.
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legion11
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Post by legion11 on Mar 16, 2024 14:17:26 GMT -6
UDFA TARGETS
QB Sam Hartman - ND - lacks the arm to be a starter. Which is too bad, because he's got a good head on his shoulders. Has been through a bunch of offensive systems and is a quick learner. Good PS candidate who could get called up on short notice and not crap his pants. Can't be much worse than the mutts we trotted out there after Kirk went down.
DE Eric Watts - UCONN - might be a player without a position, but has enough traits to take a chance on developing. Needs tons of coaching, but has some nasty to him and at worst can be a "body" on the D-Line.
CB Decamerion Richardson - MISS - Below average change of direction and poor feel for the game, BUT... 6'2" and 4.34 speed is a guy I'll put on the PS any time and hope the light turns on for him.
QB Kedon Slovis - BYU - had a tremendous freshman season at USC but has regressed every year since. What threw him off track and can it be corrected? A good all-around athlete. Not a "running QB" but runs deceptively well when needed. Ball placement is inconsistent and sometimes flutters due to bad footwork. A little slow on progressions at times.
LB Michael Barrett - MICH - can lay a good hit on a ballcarrier when he lines things up, but is short at 5'11" and can get swallowed up by blockers at times. Pretty good coverage LB and can play on all ST units.
WR Jalen Coker HC - great ball skills/tracking, but mediocre traits. Played well against inferior competition, will it translate at the next level?
OC Andrew Raym OKLA - has the size and nasty demeanor coaches want. Not very good technique or body control, will need to hone his skills at the NFL level to overcome a basic lack of athleticism. But he's a brawler with the right dimensions and that gives him a puncher's chance on a practice squad to develop for a year or two.
OC Dylan McMahon NC ST - super agile/athletic mover, but easily pushed around by larger DTs. Will need a year on the PS to add bulk/strength. High boom/bust candidate.
CB Storm Duck LOU - Why? BECAUSE HIS NAME IS STORM DUCK. Do you need any other reason? He's 6'0", 201lbs, ran a 4.43, and has elite explosive traits (98th percentile broad jump, 85th% vert). Unfortunately his agility testing (shuttle and 3-cone) were very subpar, suggesting limited agility and change of direction. This likely keeps him from ever being more than an average cover guy, but HIS NAME IS STORM DUCK and that's good enough to make my Practice Squad to see if a year or two refining technique can overcome his limitations.
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drhoades
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Post by drhoades on Mar 16, 2024 18:46:32 GMT -6
Wow, even tho it is well documented (much to the chagrin of many) that I donβt really get into the pre-draft hype, I really appreciate posts like these.
I rely on you all to analyze the draft and our picks. Thanks
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sleepy
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Post by sleepy on Mar 16, 2024 18:51:18 GMT -6
Wow, even tho it is well documented (much to the chagrin of many) that I donβt really get into the pre-draft hype, I really appreciate posts like these. I rely on you all to analyze the draft and our picks. Thanks [br agree. 100%. thank you and to all you give insights on draft prospects
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Vikeroo
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Post by Vikeroo on Mar 16, 2024 23:01:54 GMT -6
Great job Legion! I am mostly sitting this year out because it is pretty obvious we are probably only making one top 100 selection and this is a 70-80 player draft. 50 less underclassmen this year then last. Next year ends the xtra year guys, but NIL's are having an effect. Little surprised you do not have McCaffery on there? Maybe they can find a late gem at IDL, but this is a pretty bad IDL class and most of the value is in the 25-75 range there. I probably will take a closer look at CB's projected for day 3 because there will be some interesting ones. Zak Zinter is a guy that might be worth taking a day 3 look at for a day 2 talent with a horrible injury at the end of the season.
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avguy
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Post by avguy on Mar 16, 2024 23:13:06 GMT -6
Super fun & fascinating Leg! I always like to read up draft prospectus and yours is interesting, targeted, and free!
Of curiosity to me is the number of gigantic OTs in the draft pool. Iβm feeling Bryant McKinnie or Phil Loadholt. The current Vikings seem less fortified inside but I would be intrigued if they could still add in another big Edge blocker.
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legion11
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Post by legion11 on Mar 17, 2024 17:14:58 GMT -6
Great job Legion! I am mostly sitting this year out because it is pretty obvious we are probably only making one top 100 selection and this is a 70-80 player draft. 50 less underclassmen this year then last. Next year ends the xtra year guys, but NIL's are having an effect. Little surprised you do not have McCaffery on there? Maybe they can find a late gem at IDL, but this is a pretty bad IDL class and most of the value is in the 25-75 range there. I probably will take a closer look at CB's projected for day 3 because there will be some interesting ones. Zak Zinter is a guy that might be worth taking a day 3 look at for a day 2 talent with a horrible injury at the end of the season. Good stuff, as I would expect Vikeroo. I remember you were one of the top contributors I relied on in 2022 to help build out this list further from the 1.0 draft. Where do you have Zinter? I'd say 3rd round if he didn't get hurt but maybe the injury drops him to the 5th? I'm comparing him to Andrew Vorhees of last year, who probably goes in the late 2nd to mid 3rd if he didn't pop an ACL at the Combine. That torpedoed him all the way to the 6th round. However, Zinter's injury was a clean break of two bones, no ligament damage and he'll be able to play in his rookie season. So maybe 4th for him? I like McCaffrey. With that family, you know he's going to be a great technician and you'll never have to worry about him from a preparation standpoint. He's not quite the athlete you'd hope for though - he lacks his father's size and his brother's juice. I have him in the 5th, where do you like him? Thoughts on Western Kentucky WR Malachi Corley? Late 2nd, early 3rd?
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taz24
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Post by taz24 on Mar 18, 2024 12:24:46 GMT -6
good read. Good post.
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