Post by mossatron on Oct 22, 2020 21:38:22 GMT -6
Super long post, you’ve been warned. I’m trying to analyze our projected first pick from all angles and get a clear picture at what might actually happen. How about Fail for Fields?
I'm going to try and break this down into sections to make as easy to read as possible, first up, where I think the Vikings will finish the season:
I'm going with a 5-11 record which would mean 4-6 the rest of the way. I'll give them 2 division wins and another 2 wins against Dallas and Jacksonville. I "think" this will put us at about the 8th draft slot, the other 7 teams ahead of us will probably be some variation of the Jets, Bengals, Texans, Jaguars, Chargers, two of Cowboys/Giants/Football Team) and Lions. I realize that's 8 and I understand all of them have the potential to finish lower but I get the feeling one of CIN/HOU/LAC/DET/NFCE Team du jour will snag a few more wins. Also, I’m only taking two from the NFC East because one team will probably win a couple extra from intra-division games alone, I’m assuming DAL/WAS are the two worst.
Teams I’ve omitted from the “biggest loser” competition, I looked at everybody with 3 wins or less: Patriots (Belichick), Dolphins (Tua factor), Broncos (It’s either them or Chargers), Eagles (probably win division), Falcons (looked good beating us), 49ers (still good), Saints (still good), Panthers (McCaffrey comes back, decent team) and Raiders (I’ve watched them, very competitive).
This brings me to my next point, what teams are bad, looking for a QB, or both? We can’t forget about anybody within striking distance (aka non-playoff teams, picks 1-18) because trade-ups for QB’s happen all of the time. In addition, I’m not necessarily discounting teams that DO make the playoffs but are still potentially looking at QB’s (PIT/IND/CHI/TB/NO) as off-limits but my basis for setting that aside is because I’m looking at a prospect likely to go within the top 5 and when you’re drafting in the 20’s, it takes a hell of a lot to move up that far. Anyway, on to the list:
Patriots-I think they re-sign Cam, seems like a fit
Jets-They’re drafting Lawrence and we all know it
Dolphins-They have Tua
Bengals-They have Burrow
Texans-They have Watson
Jaguars-Maybe, Minshew is a fun story but I’m not sure they’re sold
Broncos-Who knows with Lock, Elway is always taking chances
Chargers-They have Herbert
Eagles-I’m assuming they win the division, Wentz has shown life
Cowboys-Do they bring Dak back? If not, they need a QB bad
Giants-Do they move on from Jones in only two years? I think no
Football Team-Haskins looks like a bust, they’re going QB AGAIN
Falcons-Ryan’s 2021 cap hit is HUGE, there’s no concern this year
49ers-They’re too competitive now to use a 1st on a QB IMO
Saints-Brees is on his way out but they’re mortgaged for the now
Panthers-Call it a “Teddy Trap”, they can’t help but believe in him
Lions-Stafford does have an “out” in 2021, would he?
Raiders-Carr’s dead cap hit in 2021 is surprisingly low, who knows?
That leaves 3 on yes (NYJ/DAL/WAS) and 5 on maybe (JAX/DEN/NYG/DET/LV)
Keep in mind that Dak Prescott WILL be on the market as a free agent and I assure you somebody will sign him for big money, despite the injury. Will it be the Cowboys or the Football Team? Someone else? It would be in our best interest if a team drafting ahead of us signed him, another team off the QB list (assuming no trade-up). Will both Dallas and Washington finish worse than us? At this point, who knows, maybe one, maybe both.
So let’s move on to the draft, here are a few different scenarios that can play out, keep in mind I’ve assumed the Jets take Lawrence at #1. Also, in my mind Fields goes top 5.
1. Both Washington and Dallas finish worse than us, Fields and (QB3/Lance?) are both gone.
2. Both WAS/DAL finish worse than us, one of them signs Dak, the other takes Fields, we’re left with (QB3/Lance?).
3. One of WAS/DAL finish worse than us, they don’t sign Dak, they take Fields, we’re left with (QB3/Lance?).
4. One of WAS/DAL finish worse than us, they DO sign Dak, we have a shot at Fields.
5. Neither one take Fields, we trade up to 4/5 (or whatever) to get Fields.
6. We manage to trade above one or the other or both and still get Fields despite both teams needing a QB, pending the Dak situation.
7. One of the “maybe” teams jumps up in front of us and take either one, we get none of the three, or maybe (QB3/Lance?) if scenario 6 plays out.
Anywayyyyy, I’m probably missing more possibilities but that’s all that my brain can handle right now lol. I think we would have more than enough ammunition to move up, possibly as high as #4 with a combination of our assumed #8 pick, our high 3rd and possibly also a future pick from the 2022 draft, hopefully not a 1st but hey, if Fields is there? When it comes to Next Best QB/Trey Lance, if we’re at #8, I feel like we have a strong possibility of landing him and here’s why. At #8, he could just fall to us BUT if another team has interest and is looking to move up in front of us to #7 or higher, I’m confident the team looking to trade out would check with us to see if we would beat the offer and I think we would. The only way we miss out IMO is if both DAL/WAS finish worse, neither signs Dak and both take a QB and to me that’s about as low a percentage chance as any of the options laid out.
And finally, here is why I think Justin Fields is THE prospect that we need!
Pocket presence: He naturally feels pressure, slides around skillfully while keeping his eyes down the field, his improvisation reminds me of Rodgers. He’s also plenty athletic to make big plays with his feet.
Footwork: His feet are calm, not a lot of panic in them. I also like how he typically sets and uses his lower half to push into his throws, no rush in his windup either, smooth. He has good fundamentals.
Accuracy: He throws a pretty deep ball, it’s nice and catchable and almost always gives his guy a chance to make a play. He can go sideline-to-sideline and down the seam with ease.
Big Game Pedigree: He’s been in big games and there are more to come. Obviously his 2019 Big Ten Championship Game tape is excellent but I’d like to focus more on Clemson in the CFP Semifinal. He threw the big pick to end the game (2 total) and he lost to Trevor Lawrence and to me, that’s not an indictment. He looked like he belonged and was never overwhelmed by the moment. That throw on 4th & 2 with about 12 minutes left in the fourth quarter to take the lead was a laser. He looks like the kind of guy who will try to carry a team on his shoulders and not to be cliché but I think that might be his biggest fault, being over aggressive trying to make the “big play”. I was watching the final drive on the edge of my seat, he has an “it” factor.
Pro Ready/Nuance: I can’t speak much to his ability to look off defenders, I didn’t see a lot of that from within the pocket. When he drops, he usually throws to his first or designed read. The thing that struck me was how he was able to move around and continued to scan the field while avoiding would-be tacklers. He also seems to work almost exclusively out of the shotgun so there’s going to be an obvious learning curve to the pro game. The hope would be that he leans on his athleticism at first and then learns on the job, much like Jackson or Mahomes for instance.
Injuries Etc: No major injuries, only a “scare” last year where he sprained his MCL and then aggravated it only to come back out of the medical tent and throw a TD against their rival, whom they absolutely destroyed by the way, in their house, killing their season. From other tape I’ve watched, he’s tough as nails and fearless, again, it could be to his detriment but you want that from your leader.
So anyway, this is the guy we need and he’s a viable option, go get him!
*I haven’t really looked much into Trey Lance yet, just going off of his projected draft position at this point. Anybody with more info on him, comments would be appreciated*
I'm going to try and break this down into sections to make as easy to read as possible, first up, where I think the Vikings will finish the season:
I'm going with a 5-11 record which would mean 4-6 the rest of the way. I'll give them 2 division wins and another 2 wins against Dallas and Jacksonville. I "think" this will put us at about the 8th draft slot, the other 7 teams ahead of us will probably be some variation of the Jets, Bengals, Texans, Jaguars, Chargers, two of Cowboys/Giants/Football Team) and Lions. I realize that's 8 and I understand all of them have the potential to finish lower but I get the feeling one of CIN/HOU/LAC/DET/NFCE Team du jour will snag a few more wins. Also, I’m only taking two from the NFC East because one team will probably win a couple extra from intra-division games alone, I’m assuming DAL/WAS are the two worst.
Teams I’ve omitted from the “biggest loser” competition, I looked at everybody with 3 wins or less: Patriots (Belichick), Dolphins (Tua factor), Broncos (It’s either them or Chargers), Eagles (probably win division), Falcons (looked good beating us), 49ers (still good), Saints (still good), Panthers (McCaffrey comes back, decent team) and Raiders (I’ve watched them, very competitive).
This brings me to my next point, what teams are bad, looking for a QB, or both? We can’t forget about anybody within striking distance (aka non-playoff teams, picks 1-18) because trade-ups for QB’s happen all of the time. In addition, I’m not necessarily discounting teams that DO make the playoffs but are still potentially looking at QB’s (PIT/IND/CHI/TB/NO) as off-limits but my basis for setting that aside is because I’m looking at a prospect likely to go within the top 5 and when you’re drafting in the 20’s, it takes a hell of a lot to move up that far. Anyway, on to the list:
Patriots-I think they re-sign Cam, seems like a fit
Jets-They’re drafting Lawrence and we all know it
Dolphins-They have Tua
Bengals-They have Burrow
Texans-They have Watson
Jaguars-Maybe, Minshew is a fun story but I’m not sure they’re sold
Broncos-Who knows with Lock, Elway is always taking chances
Chargers-They have Herbert
Eagles-I’m assuming they win the division, Wentz has shown life
Cowboys-Do they bring Dak back? If not, they need a QB bad
Giants-Do they move on from Jones in only two years? I think no
Football Team-Haskins looks like a bust, they’re going QB AGAIN
Falcons-Ryan’s 2021 cap hit is HUGE, there’s no concern this year
49ers-They’re too competitive now to use a 1st on a QB IMO
Saints-Brees is on his way out but they’re mortgaged for the now
Panthers-Call it a “Teddy Trap”, they can’t help but believe in him
Lions-Stafford does have an “out” in 2021, would he?
Raiders-Carr’s dead cap hit in 2021 is surprisingly low, who knows?
That leaves 3 on yes (NYJ/DAL/WAS) and 5 on maybe (JAX/DEN/NYG/DET/LV)
Keep in mind that Dak Prescott WILL be on the market as a free agent and I assure you somebody will sign him for big money, despite the injury. Will it be the Cowboys or the Football Team? Someone else? It would be in our best interest if a team drafting ahead of us signed him, another team off the QB list (assuming no trade-up). Will both Dallas and Washington finish worse than us? At this point, who knows, maybe one, maybe both.
So let’s move on to the draft, here are a few different scenarios that can play out, keep in mind I’ve assumed the Jets take Lawrence at #1. Also, in my mind Fields goes top 5.
1. Both Washington and Dallas finish worse than us, Fields and (QB3/Lance?) are both gone.
2. Both WAS/DAL finish worse than us, one of them signs Dak, the other takes Fields, we’re left with (QB3/Lance?).
3. One of WAS/DAL finish worse than us, they don’t sign Dak, they take Fields, we’re left with (QB3/Lance?).
4. One of WAS/DAL finish worse than us, they DO sign Dak, we have a shot at Fields.
5. Neither one take Fields, we trade up to 4/5 (or whatever) to get Fields.
6. We manage to trade above one or the other or both and still get Fields despite both teams needing a QB, pending the Dak situation.
7. One of the “maybe” teams jumps up in front of us and take either one, we get none of the three, or maybe (QB3/Lance?) if scenario 6 plays out.
Anywayyyyy, I’m probably missing more possibilities but that’s all that my brain can handle right now lol. I think we would have more than enough ammunition to move up, possibly as high as #4 with a combination of our assumed #8 pick, our high 3rd and possibly also a future pick from the 2022 draft, hopefully not a 1st but hey, if Fields is there? When it comes to Next Best QB/Trey Lance, if we’re at #8, I feel like we have a strong possibility of landing him and here’s why. At #8, he could just fall to us BUT if another team has interest and is looking to move up in front of us to #7 or higher, I’m confident the team looking to trade out would check with us to see if we would beat the offer and I think we would. The only way we miss out IMO is if both DAL/WAS finish worse, neither signs Dak and both take a QB and to me that’s about as low a percentage chance as any of the options laid out.
And finally, here is why I think Justin Fields is THE prospect that we need!
Pocket presence: He naturally feels pressure, slides around skillfully while keeping his eyes down the field, his improvisation reminds me of Rodgers. He’s also plenty athletic to make big plays with his feet.
Footwork: His feet are calm, not a lot of panic in them. I also like how he typically sets and uses his lower half to push into his throws, no rush in his windup either, smooth. He has good fundamentals.
Accuracy: He throws a pretty deep ball, it’s nice and catchable and almost always gives his guy a chance to make a play. He can go sideline-to-sideline and down the seam with ease.
Big Game Pedigree: He’s been in big games and there are more to come. Obviously his 2019 Big Ten Championship Game tape is excellent but I’d like to focus more on Clemson in the CFP Semifinal. He threw the big pick to end the game (2 total) and he lost to Trevor Lawrence and to me, that’s not an indictment. He looked like he belonged and was never overwhelmed by the moment. That throw on 4th & 2 with about 12 minutes left in the fourth quarter to take the lead was a laser. He looks like the kind of guy who will try to carry a team on his shoulders and not to be cliché but I think that might be his biggest fault, being over aggressive trying to make the “big play”. I was watching the final drive on the edge of my seat, he has an “it” factor.
Pro Ready/Nuance: I can’t speak much to his ability to look off defenders, I didn’t see a lot of that from within the pocket. When he drops, he usually throws to his first or designed read. The thing that struck me was how he was able to move around and continued to scan the field while avoiding would-be tacklers. He also seems to work almost exclusively out of the shotgun so there’s going to be an obvious learning curve to the pro game. The hope would be that he leans on his athleticism at first and then learns on the job, much like Jackson or Mahomes for instance.
Injuries Etc: No major injuries, only a “scare” last year where he sprained his MCL and then aggravated it only to come back out of the medical tent and throw a TD against their rival, whom they absolutely destroyed by the way, in their house, killing their season. From other tape I’ve watched, he’s tough as nails and fearless, again, it could be to his detriment but you want that from your leader.
So anyway, this is the guy we need and he’s a viable option, go get him!
*I haven’t really looked much into Trey Lance yet, just going off of his projected draft position at this point. Anybody with more info on him, comments would be appreciated*
