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Post by 1angryviking on Jun 8, 2022 23:44:25 GMT -6
It is fact that the Vikings were a middling team on downfield pass routes... yet you offer no facts to refute that. - It is fact that the Vikings were 23rd in YPA on 3rd & 8-10 - It is fact that the Vikings were 9th in YPA on 3rd & 11+ - It is fact that the Vikings were 26th in 3rd down conversions Regarding your Chiefs Quip... check the stats. Mahomes averaged 8.8 per attempt on 3rd downs to Cousins 7.9... and Mahomes made a lot of plays with the legs on 3rd down. Regarding you baseless Patriots quip... super lazy to reference the GOAT (coach and QB) to bolster your "opinion"... your better than that. YPA has nothing to do with it. Air yards have everything to do with it. Your second point actually is above the norm being 9th of 32 teams in YPA on those 3rd and +11, but once again that is besides the point they attempted longer air yards per pass in those and all situations then average. They were not a successful 3rd down team, but that is completely separate from throwing short of the sticks or not. Every team throws passes short of the sticks on a number of 3rd downs. Pressures and hits were the cause which were in the case of Rams vs Vikings half over again as many of both in the same amount of drop backs roughly. Both Stafford and Kirk averaged the same amount of pocket time per pass play, but Stafford had a better OL, and also means play design and schemes did not fit the ability of the players on the field. They needed better and faster play design and probably 5 step instead of 7 step drop backs often, but even that is a problem due to the pressure from the middle. They were attempting to run a vertical deep drop back offense with an offensive line that couldn't handle the job. Actually the problem might have been not throwing short enough in those situations and not utilizing more weel designed quick crossing patterns and slants in those situations. And this gets to one big Kirk failing I have always noticed he prefers not to throw to the inside and while accurate and strong armed he seldom seems to throw guys open and looks for guys to win the battle pre throw. The end issue is the team was not able to execute what they were trying very well. The stats I referenced were not lost on me and I didn’t cherry pick what I used. I referenced both of them to frame out that on the obvious passing situations the Vikings were 16th-17th in yards per attempt…despite having a top 5 skill position group. I don’t assume most receivers run backwards after catching a ball… so “air yards” vs YPA makes no difference in this discussion. Since the Vikings were a middling offense on passing scenarios; either the Vikings receivers get no YAC (which means they should eliminate routes short of the sticks); or, the receivers get YAC which means the passes were even shorter (which means they should eliminate routes short of the sticks). Either way... the passing game on 3rd down was too often short of the sticks. Ultimately, teams with poor pass blocking need their FB’s, RB’s and TE’s to block on 3rd and long and not running a 2 yard route.
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Post by 2012mom on Jun 9, 2022 6:36:01 GMT -6
YPA has nothing to do with it. Air yards have everything to do with it. Your second point actually is above the norm being 9th of 32 teams in YPA on those 3rd and +11, but once again that is besides the point they attempted longer air yards per pass in those and all situations then average. They were not a successful 3rd down team, but that is completely separate from throwing short of the sticks or not. Every team throws passes short of the sticks on a number of 3rd downs. Pressures and hits were the cause which were in the case of Rams vs Vikings half over again as many of both in the same amount of drop backs roughly. Both Stafford and Kirk averaged the same amount of pocket time per pass play, but Stafford had a better OL, and also means play design and schemes did not fit the ability of the players on the field. They needed better and faster play design and probably 5 step instead of 7 step drop backs often, but even that is a problem due to the pressure from the middle. They were attempting to run a vertical deep drop back offense with an offensive line that couldn't handle the job. Actually the problem might have been not throwing short enough in those situations and not utilizing more weel designed quick crossing patterns and slants in those situations. And this gets to one big Kirk failing I have always noticed he prefers not to throw to the inside and while accurate and strong armed he seldom seems to throw guys open and looks for guys to win the battle pre throw. The end issue is the team was not able to execute what they were trying very well. The stats I referenced were not lost on me and I didn’t cherry pick what I used. I referenced both of them to frame out that on the obvious passing situations the Vikings were 16th-17th in yards per attempt…despite having a top 5 skill position group. I don’t assume most receivers run backwards after catching a ball… so “air yards” vs YPA makes no difference in this discussion. Since the Vikings were a middling offense on passing scenarios; either the Vikings receivers get no YAC (which means they should eliminate routes short of the sticks); or, the receivers get YAC which means the passes were even shorter (which means they should eliminate routes short of the sticks). Either way... the passing game on 3rd down was too often short of the sticks. Ultimately, teams with poor pass blocking need their FB’s, RB’s and TE’s to block on 3rd and long and not running a 2 yard route. YPA is NOT the same as air yards per attempt. Cousins was tied for second among starters in air yards/attempt (4.8) with Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, and he wasn't far behind Stafford (5.0), who was best among starters. Burrow had the best YPA among starters (8.9), Cousins was tied for 8th among starters in YPA (7.5). www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-qb.phpI think it's important to remember that YPA and air yards per attempt are both aggregates, and the issue here was specifically with third and long situations, not with average play, so frankly, I don't think that either aggregate stat is important to the third down conversion situation. The fact that I showed earlier was that Stafford's success in third down conversions did not decrease very much whether the needed yardage was long or short, while Cousins's success fell off a cliff when it came to third and long. I still contend that was due to a combination of play design, play calling, and terrible pass blocking, together with Cousins wanting to get something positive, even meaningless yards, on every pass.
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Post by 1angryviking on Jun 9, 2022 7:03:24 GMT -6
The stats I referenced were not lost on me and I didn’t cherry pick what I used. I referenced both of them to frame out that on the obvious passing situations the Vikings were 16th-17th in yards per attempt…despite having a top 5 skill position group. I don’t assume most receivers run backwards after catching a ball… so “air yards” vs YPA makes no difference in this discussion. Since the Vikings were a middling offense on passing scenarios; either the Vikings receivers get no YAC (which means they should eliminate routes short of the sticks); or, the receivers get YAC which means the passes were even shorter (which means they should eliminate routes short of the sticks). Either way... the passing game on 3rd down was too often short of the sticks. Ultimately, teams with poor pass blocking need their FB’s, RB’s and TE’s to block on 3rd and long and not running a 2 yard route. YPA is NOT the same as air yards per attempt. Cousins was tied for second among starters in air yards/attempt (4.8) with Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, and he wasn't far behind Stafford (5.0), who was best among starters. Burrow had the best YPA among starters (8.9), Cousins was tied for 8th among starters in YPA (7.5). www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-qb.phpI think it's important to remember that YPA and air yards per attempt are both aggregates, and the issue here was specifically with third and long situations, not with average play, so frankly, I don't think that either aggregate stat is important to the third down conversion situation. The fact that I showed earlier was that Stafford's success in third down conversions did not decrease very much whether the needed yardage was long or short, while Cousins's success fell off a cliff when it came to third and long. I still contend that was due to a combination of play design, play calling, and terrible pass blocking, together with Cousins wanting to get something positive, even meaningless yards, on every pass. This is a 3rd & long conversation... not every play You are literally saying the same thing as me when you say "Cousins's success fell off a cliff when it came to third and long due to a combination of play design, play calling, and terrible pass blocking"
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Post by intrenched1 on Jun 9, 2022 7:07:46 GMT -6
Swing passes, screens, flea flickers, laterals, shovel passes- all are designed to be completed short of the first down marker.
Fans hate 'em when they fail- (especially me!). But to remove them from the playbook would be a mistake.
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Post by 2012mom on Jun 9, 2022 11:01:59 GMT -6
YPA is NOT the same as air yards per attempt. Cousins was tied for second among starters in air yards/attempt (4.8) with Russell Wilson, Lamar Jackson and Joe Burrow, and he wasn't far behind Stafford (5.0), who was best among starters. Burrow had the best YPA among starters (8.9), Cousins was tied for 8th among starters in YPA (7.5). www.fantasypros.com/nfl/advanced-stats-qb.phpI think it's important to remember that YPA and air yards per attempt are both aggregates, and the issue here was specifically with third and long situations, not with average play, so frankly, I don't think that either aggregate stat is important to the third down conversion situation. The fact that I showed earlier was that Stafford's success in third down conversions did not decrease very much whether the needed yardage was long or short, while Cousins's success fell off a cliff when it came to third and long. I still contend that was due to a combination of play design, play calling, and terrible pass blocking, together with Cousins wanting to get something positive, even meaningless yards, on every pass. This is a 3rd & long conversation... not every play You are literally saying the same thing as me when you say "Cousins's success fell off a cliff when it came to third and long due to a combination of play design, play calling, and terrible pass blocking" Yes, it's a 3rd and long situation, but the stats that you two are using to bicker over, YPA vs air yards, are aggregates. They are useless in this discussion, unless they're broken out to look only at 3rd and long situations. You're arguing that the problem is throwing short of the sticks, and you're trying to use YPA, but that start is per ATTEMPT, not per completion. I've already shown that Cousins has 450 yards in 41 COMPLETIONS on 3rd down and 10+, for an average of right at 11 yards per completion. I think you and I are mostly in agreement, but I'm saying that your argument (or at least the data type using to try to make the argument) is faulty. Vike is arguing that throwing short of the sticks is something that all QBs do, which is true in general, but I haven't seen data here to show how Cousins compared in throwing short of the sticks ON 3RD AND LONG. So, let's do that. Cousins had 450 yards on 41 completions on 3rd and 10+, for 10.97 yards per completion, which looks pretty good, except that those 41 completions only resulted in 15 first downs, which means only 36.5% conversions. So yes, Cousins is throwing short of the sticks on nearly 2/3 of his throws on 3rd and 10+. Matthew Stafford had 530 yards in 23 completions on 3rd and 10+, for an average of 23 yards per completion on 3rd and 10+. As you might guess, 70% of his 3rd and 10+ completions went for first downs, nearly twice the success rate than for Cousins and the Vikings. Was it play calling/OL issues, or was it Cousins? A big chunk was play calling and OL, simply for the offense to be in 3rd and long so often. 2020 Cousins averaged 16 yards/completion on 3rd and 10+, but he only converted 9 first downs, which was only 1/3 conversion on 3rd and 10+ completions. 2019 Cousins averaged 11.7 yards/completion on 3rd and 10+, and he converted 10 of the 22 completions into first downs, which was 45.5% conversion on 3rd and 10+ completions. 2018 Cousins averaged 11.9 yards/completion on 3rd and 10+, but only 7 of the 21 completions were first downs, which was 33% conversion on 3rd and 10+ completions. 2017 Cousins (WFT) averaged 13.4 yards/completion on 3rd and 10+, but only 11 of the 28 completions went for first downs, which was 39% conversion on 3rd and 10+ completions. So, in 5 years under multiple coordinators and play callers, Cousins has never converted even 50% of his 3rd and 10+ completions. Stafford's 3rd and 10+ completions 2020 58% converted to first downs 2019 44% converted to first downs 2018 43% converted to first downs 2017 48% converted to first downs From looking at these 2QBs, Stafford certainly made a leap of improvement in his first year with the Rams, but he has nearly always thrown for a higher 3rd down conversion rate than Cousins over the past 5 years.
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Post by redbird87 on Jun 9, 2022 12:07:37 GMT -6
While Cousins shoulders some responsibility in those numbers, Design, OL and general approach philosophically are the primary culprits.
Not to mention that 3rd and long (10+) can be apples to oranges. There is a big difference in 3rd & 11 vs 3rd and 17. There is also a much bigger difference in approach. Some routes may lend to a higher completion rate but more downside if not executed such as plays that are thrown inside. Where for example a fade routes and sideline routes can be run where it’s your guy catches it or nobody catches it. Given Zimmer’s makeup of trusting his defense more than his offense it wouldn’t surprise me if schematically our 3rd and long plays were designed to be conservative in nature ( either thrown short where ball spends little time in air with hope the WR/RB can break a tackle or thrown outside were success rate is lower but so is turnover potential. Last, and certainly not to be overlooked… for the years Kirk has been here, out Ol has been among the leagues WORST at pass blocking… particularly up the middle. This greatly impacts what an OC can call on 3rd and long and it greatly impacts what a QB can do when a 330 NT is standing 2 ft in front of you. With so much pressure applied up the middle, outside routes and dump off plays are easier to see than the middle of the field. Bottom line, a better OL, a more creative scheme and a less conservative approach to Everything should help this team greatly in 23 once the team settles into the new offense. I don’t expect it to be great early on and I think there will be definite growing pains. I think it will be mid season at a min before it is clicking on all cylinders!
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Post by Vikeroo on Jun 9, 2022 15:27:18 GMT -6
This is a 3rd & long conversation... not every play You are literally saying the same thing as me when you say "Cousins's success fell off a cliff when it came to third and long due to a combination of play design, play calling, and terrible pass blocking" Yes, it's a 3rd and long situation, but the stats that you two are using to bicker over, YPA vs air yards, are aggregates. They are useless in this discussion, unless they're broken out to look only at 3rd and long situations. You're arguing that the problem is throwing short of the sticks, and you're trying to use YPA, but that start is per ATTEMPT, not per completion. I've already shown that Cousins has 450 yards in 41 COMPLETIONS on 3rd down and 10+, for an average of right at 11 yards per completion. I think you and I are mostly in agreement, but I'm saying that your argument (or at least the data type using to try to make the argument) is faulty. Vike is arguing that throwing short of the sticks is something that all QBs do, which is true in general, but I haven't seen data here to show how Cousins compared in throwing short of the sticks ON 3RD AND LONG. So, let's do that. Cousins had 450 yards on 41 completions on 3rd and 10+, for 10.97 yards per completion, which looks pretty good, except that those 41 completions only resulted in 15 first downs, which means only 36.5% conversions. So yes, Cousins is throwing short of the sticks on nearly 2/3 of his throws on 3rd and 10+. Matthew Stafford had 530 yards in 23 completions on 3rd and 10+, for an average of 23 yards per completion on 3rd and 10+. As you might guess, 70% of his 3rd and 10+ completions went for first downs, nearly twice the success rate than for Cousins and the Vikings. Was it play calling/OL issues, or was it Cousins? A big chunk was play calling and OL, simply for the offense to be in 3rd and long so often. 2020 Cousins averaged 16 yards/completion on 3rd and 10+, but he only converted 9 first downs, which was only 1/3 conversion on 3rd and 10+ completions. 2019 Cousins averaged 11.7 yards/completion on 3rd and 10+, and he converted 10 of the 22 completions into first downs, which was 45.5% conversion on 3rd and 10+ completions. 2018 Cousins averaged 11.9 yards/completion on 3rd and 10+, but only 7 of the 21 completions were first downs, which was 33% conversion on 3rd and 10+ completions. 2017 Cousins (WFT) averaged 13.4 yards/completion on 3rd and 10+, but only 11 of the 28 completions went for first downs, which was 39% conversion on 3rd and 10+ completions. So, in 5 years under multiple coordinators and play callers, Cousins has never converted even 50% of his 3rd and 10+ completions. Stafford's 3rd and 10+ completions 2020 58% converted to first downs 2019 44% converted to first downs 2018 43% converted to first downs 2017 48% converted to first downs From looking at these 2QBs, Stafford certainly made a leap of improvement in his first year with the Rams, but he has nearly always thrown for a higher 3rd down conversion rate than Cousins over the past 5 years. The there are the incompleted attempts and the air yards on them and YAC to consider. Also the reason for using Stafford is because he was the bench mark for YPR, air yards, and so many other things. End of the day though the bread and butter play of that offense was a 5 or 6 yard curl/hook to Kupp that Kupp averaged about 5 YAC yards after. The reason for the low conversion rates was not getting the ball out of the hand or getting it out under pressure as often as not. There also is not stat for this but the Vikings have run too many plays the last few years with receivers being in the same spot. The offense did not use spacing very well. And like I have said even on the YPA on 3rd downs he was above average www.statmuse.com/nfl/ask/most-passing-air-yards-per-attempt-2021-3rd-down (8th among regular starters). 1 thing sticks out is that Kirk's completion % drops much more on 3rd down vs other starting QB's on that list (close to 5% drop). That is the root of the problem we are discussing. And I think we all know the reason for that. P.S. There are a lot of reasons why Mahomes and Burrow threw shorter passes for longer gains/completion % then Kirk and in Burrows case he also had a bad OL.
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skolvike
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Post by skolvike on Jun 9, 2022 16:15:20 GMT -6
I can't believe people are still arguing over Cousin's performance in the dinosaur run run pass punt offense with no chance to audible, absentee ballots for an OL, and the absolute worst defense anywhere in the 21st century.
The only reason I can see the stats from anywhere in those last couple of years matter is in the heads of true masochists. There isn't a Viking fan alive (and several dead as well) who doesn't remember last year's humiliating disaster that made Les Steckel's team look SB ready. Please tell me how it helps reliving ever second of it like it was your first kiss. I know, it's the football doldrums, but some things just don't bear reminiscing -- such as the 2020-2021 Vikings.
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Post by 2012mom on Jun 9, 2022 16:49:26 GMT -6
I can't believe people are still arguing over Cousin's performance in the dinosaur run run pass punt offense with no chance to audible, absentee ballots for an OL, and the absolute worst defense anywhere in the 21st century. The only reason I can see the stats from anywhere in those last couple of years matter is in the heads of true masochists. There isn't a Viking fan alive (and several dead as well) who doesn't remember last year's humiliating disaster that made Les Steckel's team look SB ready. Please tell me how it helps reliving ever second of it like it was your first kiss. I know, it's the football doldrums, but some things just don't bear reminiscing -- such as the 2020-2021 Vikings. It only matters in the hopes that KOC has as beneficial effect on the Vikings offense as McVay has had with the Rams.
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skolvike
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Post by skolvike on Jun 9, 2022 21:10:20 GMT -6
I can't believe people are still arguing over Cousin's performance in the dinosaur run run pass punt offense with no chance to audible, absentee ballots for an OL, and the absolute worst defense anywhere in the 21st century. The only reason I can see the stats from anywhere in those last couple of years matter is in the heads of true masochists. There isn't a Viking fan alive (and several dead as well) who doesn't remember last year's humiliating disaster that made Les Steckel's team look SB ready. Please tell me how it helps reliving ever second of it like it was your first kiss. I know, it's the football doldrums, but some things just don't bear reminiscing -- such as the 2020-2021 Vikings. It only matters in the hopes that KOC has as beneficial effect on the Vikings offense as McVay has had with the Rams. It is impossible for KOC to field a team worse in any aspect to last year's Keystone Kops. Mack Sennet was resurrected last year in a purple hoodie and a coach's headset. His spirit has returned to whatever nether world ancient silent film icons inhabit.
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Post by Vikeroo on Jun 9, 2022 21:43:07 GMT -6
It only matters in the hopes that KOC has as beneficial effect on the Vikings offense as McVay has had with the Rams. It is impossible for KOC to field a team worse in any aspect to last year's Keystone Kops. Mack Sennet was resurrected last year in a purple hoodie and a coach's headset. His spirit has returned to whatever nether world ancient silent film icons inhabit. LOL they were 8-9 and you keep inferring they were worse then Steckel's 3-13 team that was the worst Viking team of my lifetime. The reason last years team was disappointing is because they should have been a 10 win team. If they were as bad as you say they massively overachieved.
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Post by 1angryviking on Jun 9, 2022 23:12:20 GMT -6
I can't believe people are still arguing over Cousin's performance in the dinosaur run run pass punt offense with no chance to audible, absentee ballots for an OL, and the absolute worst defense anywhere in the 21st century. The only reason I can see the stats from anywhere in those last couple of years matter is in the heads of true masochists. There isn't a Viking fan alive (and several dead as well) who doesn't remember last year's humiliating disaster that made Les Steckel's team look SB ready. Please tell me how it helps reliving ever second of it like it was your first kiss. I know, it's the football doldrums, but some things just don't bear reminiscing -- such as the 2020-2021 Vikings. It only matters in the hopes that KOC has as beneficial effect on the Vikings offense as McVay has had with the Rams. With every baby... you're going to have to change some dirty diapers. Hopefully it's a quicker transition than what the Rams had with McVay.
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skolvike
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Post by skolvike on Jun 9, 2022 23:38:31 GMT -6
It is impossible for KOC to field a team worse in any aspect to last year's Keystone Kops. Mack Sennet was resurrected last year in a purple hoodie and a coach's headset. His spirit has returned to whatever nether world ancient silent film icons inhabit. LOL they were 8-9 and you keep inferring they were worse then Steckel's 3-13 team that was the worst Viking team of my lifetime. The reason last years team was disappointing is because they should have been a 10 win team. If they were as bad as you say they massively overachieved. Of COURSE they massively overachieved, and that entire overachievement was accomplished by the skill of Kirk Cousins. The Viking defense was the worst in HISTORY, for God's sake. Any other team, led by 3/4 of the rest of NFL QBs would have finished no better than 2-15 and very possibly an astounding 0-17. They sucked exactly that badly. I'm not exaggerating for effect, I'm stating an honest opinion based on the demonstrated deficiencies of the team such as historically bad D, 23rd ranked Oline, archaic offensive scheme, and an HC with a mindlessly fanatical obsession to a run run pass punt philosophy. IMO Cousins carried the Vikings on his back most of the season until his coaches and his D knocked them off. I'm not "inferring" last year's debacle was worse than Steckle's. I'm flat out saying it. You can thank Kirk Cousins for more wins than Steckle's team, but that doesn't change the overall comparison.
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Post by Deleted on Jun 10, 2022 3:17:02 GMT -6
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Post by autobon7 on Jun 10, 2022 5:34:31 GMT -6
It is impossible for KOC to field a team worse in any aspect to last year's Keystone Kops. Mack Sennet was resurrected last year in a purple hoodie and a coach's headset. His spirit has returned to whatever nether world ancient silent film icons inhabit. LOL they were 8-9 and you keep inferring they were worse then Steckel's 3-13 team that was the worst Viking team of my lifetime. The reason last years team was disappointing is because they should have been a 10 win team. If they were as bad as you say they massively overachieved. One good thing that came out of the Steckel era is the most entertaining presser by a head coach in NFL history. Other than that not much else.
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