tavike
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Post by tavike on Mar 18, 2022 9:28:28 GMT -6
I have a total different definition of a franchise QB than you 2018 1 1 CLE Baker Mayfield 1 3 NYJ Sam Darnold 1 7 BUF Josh Allen 1 10 ARI Josh Rosen 1 32 BAL Lamar Jackson Only Josh and Lamar 2020 Burow Hebert Tua Love only Burrow and hebert Tua is no where close to a franchise QB. A starter is not a franchise QB. When you go from 2011 to 2020 my numbers are correct. You can pick and choose a year that was better in that time frame but over the last 10 years the numbers are the numbers. That said most of your Franchise QB's are going to be found in the 1st round by far, so if you're trying to get one you are going to have a better chance getting him in the first round. BTW Your 30% rate in your original text is correct by these numbers This is ridiculous to put young QBs down as future HOF... After the first year Baker looked like a stud and Josh Allen looked like a bust. Give the class 10 - 15 years and see what they have done. As far as Jackson goes I wouldn't want to have to depend on him to complete a game winning drive with his arm. His legs will go at some point and that he will be just another guy. The 20 class looks okay so far because Burrow and Herbert are off to good starts but again they have miles to go before being thought of as HOF worthy. And this class? 20% chance of HOF, no way. Even if you could get your pick of the bunch and put him with great coaching and surround him with talent you would still have less than a 10% chance of having a HOF QB. They just don't happen. Brady is special because of what makes him tick, not anything that could be measured at the combine. NOBODY knows with QBs. That's sort of the point I'm trying to make. It's not a very high rate of probability when drafting a QB that you are going to get your Franchise QB.
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2012mom
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Post by 2012mom on Mar 18, 2022 10:21:50 GMT -6
This is ridiculous to put young QBs down as future HOF...ย After the first year Baker looked like a stud and Josh Allen looked like a bust.ย Give the class 10 - 15 years and see what they have done. ย As far as Jackson goes I wouldn't want to have to depend on him to complete a game winning drive with his arm.ย His legs will go at some point and that he will be just another guy. The 20 class looks okay so far because Burrow and Herbert are off to good starts but again they have miles to go before being thought of as HOF worthy.ย ย And this class?ย 20% chance of HOF, no way.ย Even if you could get your pick of the bunch and put him with great coaching and surround him with talent you would still have less than a 10% chance of having a HOF QB.ย They just don't happen.ย ย Brady is special because of what makes him tick, not anything that could be measured at the combine.ย NOBODY knows with QBs. That's sort of the point I'm trying to make.ย It's not a very high rate of probability when drafting a QB that you are going to get your Franchise QB. No, it's not a high probability of getting one, but when you do, you're set for years. And what are the odds of bringing in a FA QB who has failed elsewhere to be the missing piece to win a SB? Out of the past 25 years, three guys fit this example: 2021 Stafford clearly fits 2009 Brees fits 2002 Brad Johnson fits Denver gets partial credit, as they brought in Manning to win a SB, but they win in 2015 despite him, not because of him. I almost put 2015 Manning with the "accidents." Of the rest, one was the GOAT: 2020 Brady didn't exactly fail elsewhere 3 were accidents: 2017 No one brought in Foles to win a SB, and Wentz was drafted 2000 No one thought, "Hey, Dilfer is the missing piece for a SB win!" 1999 By 1999, yes Warner was the starter, but when St Louis brought Warner to the team as a backup, he was a 27 year old grocery store employee And the rest, 17 of 25, were won by guys playing for the team that drafted them: 2019 Mahomes was drafted 2018 Brady was drafted 2016 Brady was drafted 2014 Brady was drafted 2013 Wilson was drafted 2012 Flacco was drafted 2011 Eli was drafted 2010 Rodgers was drafted 2008 Big Ben was drafted 2007 Eli was drafted 2006 P. Manning was drafted 2005 Big Ben was drafted 2004 Brady 2003 Brady 2001 Brady was drafted as an afterthought 1998 and 1997 Elway was drafted The bottom line is that 68% of the time in the past 25 years, the Super Bowl winning team drafted their starting QB. Also, if you have a good enough team built, the odds are basically equal that you can bring in a marginally competent QB and win the SB.
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tavike
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Post by tavike on Mar 18, 2022 11:15:31 GMT -6
That's sort of the point I'm trying to make. It's not a very high rate of probability when drafting a QB that you are going to get your Franchise QB. No, it's not a high probability of getting one, but when you do, you're set for years. And what are the odds of bringing in a FA QB who has failed elsewhere to be the missing piece to win a SB? Out of the past 25 years, three guys fit this example: 2021 Stafford clearly fits 2009 Brees fits 2002 Brad Johnson fits Denver gets partial credit, as they brought in Manning to win a SB, but they win in 2015 despite him, not because of him. I almost put 2015 Manning with the "accidents." Of the rest, one was the GOAT: 2020 Brady didn't exactly fail elsewhere 3 were accidents: 2017 No one brought in Foles to win a SB, and Wentz was drafted 2000 No one thought, "Hey, Dilfer is the missing piece for a SB win!" 1999 By 1999, yes Warner was the starter, but when St Louis brought Warner to the team as a backup, he was a 27 year old grocery store employee And the rest, 17 of 25, were won by guys playing for the team that drafted them: 2019 Mahomes was drafted 2018 Brady was drafted 2016 Brady was drafted 2014 Brady was drafted 2013 Wilson was drafted 2012 Flacco was drafted 2011 Eli was drafted 2010 Rodgers was drafted 2008 Big Ben was drafted 2007 Eli was drafted 2006 P. Manning was drafted 2005 Big Ben was drafted 2004 Brady 2003 Brady 2001 Brady was drafted as an afterthought 1998 and 1997 Elway was drafted The bottom line is that 68% of the time in the past 25 years, the Super Bowl winning team drafted their starting QB. Also, if you have a good enough team built, the odds are basically equal that you can bring in a marginally competent QB and win the SB. I think Brady skews the percentage rate. Also, no one is saying that the Vikes shouldn't draft a QB in the next two years. The point is that it's only about a 30% chance of getting that Franchise QB in the draft from 2011 to 2020.
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Post by marshalltohof on Mar 18, 2022 11:43:24 GMT -6
I can't disagree with his perspective here (the video is Rich Eisen, not as pictured):
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Post by redbird87 on Mar 18, 2022 11:58:58 GMT -6
That's sort of the point I'm trying to make. It's not a very high rate of probability when drafting a QB that you are going to get your Franchise QB. No, it's not a high probability of getting one, but when you do, you're set for years. And what are the odds of bringing in a FA QB who has failed elsewhere to be the missing piece to win a SB? Out of the past 25 years, three guys fit this example: 2021 Stafford clearly fits 2009 Brees fits 2002 Brad Johnson fits Denver gets partial credit, as they brought in Manning to win a SB, but they win in 2015 despite him, not because of him. I almost put 2015 Manning with the "accidents." Of the rest, one was the GOAT: 2020 Brady didn't exactly fail elsewhere 3 were accidents: 2017 No one brought in Foles to win a SB, and Wentz was drafted 2000 No one thought, "Hey, Dilfer is the missing piece for a SB win!" 1999 By 1999, yes Warner was the starter, but when St Louis brought Warner to the team as a backup, he was a 27 year old grocery store employee And the rest, 17 of 25, were won by guys playing for the team that drafted them: 2019 Mahomes was drafted 2018 Brady was drafted 2016 Brady was drafted 2014 Brady was drafted 2013 Wilson was drafted 2012 Flacco was drafted 2011 Eli was drafted 2010 Rodgers was drafted 2008 Big Ben was drafted 2007 Eli was drafted 2006 P. Manning was drafted 2005 Big Ben was drafted 2004 Brady 2003 Brady 2001 Brady was drafted as an afterthought 1998 and 1997 Elway was drafted The bottom line is that 68% of the time in the past 25 years, the Super Bowl winning team drafted their starting QB. Also, if you have a good enough team built, the odds are basically equal that you can bring in a marginally competent QB and win the SB. Actually neither of the last 2 SB winners drafted their QB's.
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2012mom
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Post by 2012mom on Mar 18, 2022 12:14:17 GMT -6
No, it's not a high probability of getting one, but when you do, you're set for years. And what are the odds of bringing in a FA QB who has failed elsewhere to be the missing piece to win a SB? Out of the past 25 years, three guys fit this example: 2021 Stafford clearly fits 2009 Brees fits 2002 Brad Johnson fits Denver gets partial credit, as they brought in Manning to win a SB, but they win in 2015 despite him, not because of him. I almost put 2015 Manning with the "accidents." Of the rest, one was the GOAT: 2020 Brady didn't exactly fail elsewhere 3 were accidents: 2017 No one brought in Foles to win a SB, and Wentz was drafted 2000 No one thought, "Hey, Dilfer is the missing piece for a SB win!" 1999 By 1999, yes Warner was the starter, but when St Louis brought Warner to the team as a backup, he was a 27 year old grocery store employee And the rest, 17 of 25, were won by guys playing for the team that drafted them: 2019 Mahomes was drafted 2018 Brady was drafted 2016 Brady was drafted 2014 Brady was drafted 2013 Wilson was drafted 2012 Flacco was drafted 2011 Eli was drafted 2010 Rodgers was drafted 2008 Big Ben was drafted 2007 Eli was drafted 2006 P. Manning was drafted 2005 Big Ben was drafted 2004 Brady 2003 Brady 2001 Brady was drafted as an afterthought 1998 and 1997 Elway was drafted The bottom line is that 68% of the time in the past 25 years, the Super Bowl winning team drafted their starting QB. Also, if you have a good enough team built, the odds are basically equal that you can bring in a marginally competent QB and win the SB. I think Brady skews the percentage rate.ย Also, no one is saying that the Vikes shouldn't draft a QB in the next two years.ย The point is that it's only about a 30% chance of getting that Franchise QB in the draft from 2011 to 2020.ย ย Yet another example of someone guessing without bothering to look things up. 1996 Favre was drafted by ATL, but they gave up on him and traded him to GB 1994 Steve Young was brought in to back up Joe Montana 1991 Rypien was another 6th round accident 1987 Doug Williams wasn't in the NFL for a few seasons before Washington signed him, and he barely played until this season 1983 Plunkett was brought in to back up Stabler 1982 Theismann was brought in to back up Billy Kilmer 1980 Plunkett was brought in to back up Stabler 1972 Ed Morall was brought in to back up Bob Griese 1970 Unitas was drafted by Pittsburgh, but never played a game for them. He became a Colt the next year 1969 Len Dawson was on his 3rd team before he started his 3rd NFL game, for the Dallas Texans, which became the KC Chiefs 1995 Aikman was drafted 1993 Aikman was drafted 1992 Aikman was drafted 1990 Simms was drafted 1989 Montana was drafted 1988 Montana was drafted 1986 Simms was drafted 1985 Jim McMahon was drafted 1984 Montana was drafted 1981 Montana was drafted 1979 Bradshaw was drafted 1978 Bradshaw was drafted 1977 Staubach was drafted 1976 Stabler was drafted 1975 Bradshaw was drafted 1974 Bradshaw was drafted 1973 Bob Griese was drafted 1971 Staubach was drafted 1968 Broadway Joe was drafted 1967 Bart Starr was drafted 1966 Bart Starr was drafted From 1966-1996: 10 QBs that were brought in as backups, either undrafted or drafted by a different team, won one or more Super Bowls 21 QBs who win the other Super Bowls we're drafted by the team with which they won the SB. Again, 68% of Super Bowls in this year range were won by building around a QB the winning team drafted.
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2012mom
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Post by 2012mom on Mar 18, 2022 12:15:00 GMT -6
No, it's not a high probability of getting one, but when you do, you're set for years. And what are the odds of bringing in a FA QB who has failed elsewhere to be the missing piece to win a SB? Out of the past 25 years, three guys fit this example: 2021 Stafford clearly fits 2009 Brees fits 2002 Brad Johnson fits Denver gets partial credit, as they brought in Manning to win a SB, but they win in 2015 despite him, not because of him. I almost put 2015 Manning with the "accidents." Of the rest, one was the GOAT: 2020 Brady didn't exactly fail elsewhere 3 were accidents: 2017 No one brought in Foles to win a SB, and Wentz was drafted 2000 No one thought, "Hey, Dilfer is the missing piece for a SB win!" 1999 By 1999, yes Warner was the starter, but when St Louis brought Warner to the team as a backup, he was a 27 year old grocery store employee And the rest, 17 of 25, were won by guys playing for the team that drafted them: 2019 Mahomes was drafted 2018 Brady was drafted 2016 Brady was drafted 2014 Brady was drafted 2013 Wilson was drafted 2012 Flacco was drafted 2011 Eli was drafted 2010 Rodgers was drafted 2008 Big Ben was drafted 2007 Eli was drafted 2006 P. Manning was drafted 2005 Big Ben was drafted 2004 Brady 2003 Brady 2001 Brady was drafted as an afterthought 1998 and 1997 Elway was drafted The bottom line is that 68% of the time in the past 25 years, the Super Bowl winning team drafted their starting QB. Also, if you have a good enough team built, the odds are basically equal that you can bring in a marginally competent QB and win the SB. Actually neither of the last 2 SB winners drafted their QB's.ย ย And I accounted for both of them, had you read my post.
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bosshogg
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Post by bosshogg on Mar 18, 2022 12:22:37 GMT -6
I am with 2012momโฆ higher % of success is drafting the QB instead of finding the QB in FA or trade.
I am all for drafting one every draft until we find our Brady,Montana,Mahomes Rodgers
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Post by redbird87 on Mar 18, 2022 12:29:21 GMT -6
The point I was trying to make is that the probability of success is absolutely horrible. Most of us don't want a Tier 3 QB....a Tier 3 QB needs a phenomenal Defense to help them because a tier 3 QB typically doesn't possess the raw talent to stress a defense and score enough points to win without a great defense. Think Dilfer. But a Tier 3 can still be an above average game managers, think Jimmy G. When you have a Tier 1 or 2 guy that is still playing or ascending you don't jettison them unless you know you have someone to take over that can be as good or better....at a minimum a Tier 3. Think Farve to Rodgers, Alex Smith to Mahomes.
So in short, you don't tear down and implode your team for anything less then a tier 1 or 2 QB. In Brady's years in the league (20+) 9% of QB's drafted fell into tier 1and2. And that success rate assumes you have the ability to select every QB which you don't. Let me say that again......if you were able to draft EVERY QB in the draft each year you'd have a 9% success rate of landing tier 1 or 2 QBs. So what do you think the odds drop to if you are making one selection in 1 year in a particular round and others have selected ahead of you. Your odds get destroyed! Maybe that is going over peoples head....but it ridiculously LOW! I have no problem imploding a team with Tua at QB or Bortles or Teddy because those guys aren't going to get you there without significant help like Jacksonville has done a number of times now. But Cousins has the talent, is surrounded by talent and finally has an Offensive Minded coach that wants to work with him. If we can find a C and reload in the draft in 22 and 23 on Defense and get some growth out of our existing Roster 23 and 24 are wide open because we only need a top half ( probably to 35%) defense to be a contender.
All this said, I haven't seen all the details...but I'm disappointed in the Theilen restructure. They should have cut him and moved forward. We have receivers waiting in the wings on cheap contracts....we are wasting them. The move with Cousins gives them a chance in 23, it gives them time to find a replacement for 24 and if the replacement isn't ready...you still keep your window open because Cousins is still in the building to negotiate with.
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Vikeroo
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Post by Vikeroo on Mar 18, 2022 12:36:17 GMT -6
The point I was trying to make is that the probability of success is absolutely horrible. Most of us don't want a Tier 3 QB....a Tier 3 QB needs a phenomenal Defense to help them because a tier 3 QB typically doesn't possess the raw talent to stress a defense and score enough points to win without a great defense. Think Dilfer. But a Tier 3 can still be an above average game managers, think Jimmy G. When you have a Tier 1 or 2 guy that is still playing or ascending you don't jettison them unless you know you have someone to take over that can be as good or better....at a minimum a Tier 3. Think Farve to Rodgers, Alex Smith to Mahomes. So in short, you don't tear down and implode your team for anything less then a tier 1 or 2 QB. In Brady's years in the league (20+) 9% of QB's drafted fell into tier 1and2. And that success rate assumes you have the ability to select every QB which you don't. Let me say that again......if you were able to draft EVERY QB in the draft each year you'd have a 9% success rate of landing tier 1 or 2 QBs. So what do you think the odds drop to if you are making one selection in 1 year in a particular round and others have selected ahead of you. Your odds get destroyed! Maybe that is going over peoples head....but it ridiculously LOW! I have no problem imploding a team with Tua at QB or Bortles or Teddy because those guys aren't going to get you there without significant help like Jacksonville has done a number of times now. But Cousins has the talent, is surrounded by talent and finally has an Offensive Minded coach that wants to work with him. If we can find a C and reload in the draft in 22 and 23 on Defense and get some growth out of our existing Roster 23 and 24 are wide open because we only need a top half ( probably to 35%) defense to be a contender. All this said, I haven't seen all the details...but I'm disappointed in the Theilen restructure. They should have cut him and moved forward. We have receivers waiting in the wings on cheap contracts....we are wasting them. The move with Cousins gives them a chance in 23, it gives them time to find a replacement for 24 and if the replacement isn't ready...you still keep your window open because Cousins is still in the building to negotiate with. You can say that about every position if you use every round. If you draft a first round QB you have an almost 1/3 chance of finding a starter. And that is some folks discounting some starters that started for multiple years and played on playoff teams. No one you draft is guaranteed to become anything at any position.
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tavike
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Post by tavike on Mar 18, 2022 14:43:59 GMT -6
I think Brady skews the percentage rate. Also, no one is saying that the Vikes shouldn't draft a QB in the next two years. The point is that it's only about a 30% chance of getting that Franchise QB in the draft from 2011 to 2020. Yet another example of someone guessing without bothering to look things up. 1996 Favre was drafted by ATL, but they gave up on him and traded him to GB 1994 Steve Young was brought in to back up Joe Montana 1991 Rypien was another 6th round accident 1987 Doug Williams wasn't in the NFL for a few seasons before Washington signed him, and he barely played until this season 1983 Plunkett was brought in to back up Stabler 1982 Theismann was brought in to back up Billy Kilmer 1980 Plunkett was brought in to back up Stabler 1972 Ed Morall was brought in to back up Bob Griese 1970 Unitas was drafted by Pittsburgh, but never played a game for them. He became a Colt the next year 1969 Len Dawson was on his 3rd team before he started his 3rd NFL game, for the Dallas Texans, which became the KC Chiefs 1995 Aikman was drafted 1993 Aikman was drafted 1992 Aikman was drafted 1990 Simms was drafted 1989 Montana was drafted 1988 Montana was drafted 1986 Simms was drafted 1985 Jim McMahon was drafted 1984 Montana was drafted 1981 Montana was drafted 1979 Bradshaw was drafted 1978 Bradshaw was drafted 1977 Staubach was drafted 1976 Stabler was drafted 1975 Bradshaw was drafted 1974 Bradshaw was drafted 1973 Bob Griese was drafted 1971 Staubach was drafted 1968 Broadway Joe was drafted 1967 Bart Starr was drafted 1966 Bart Starr was drafted From 1966-1996: 10 QBs that were brought in as backups, either undrafted or drafted by a different team, won one or more Super Bowls 21 QBs who win the other Super Bowls we're drafted by the team with which they won the SB. Again, 68% of Super Bowls in this year range were won by building around a QB the winning team drafted. Did you not comprehend what I posted. I said 30% of drafted QB's in the first round from 2011-2030 become franchise QBs for the team that drafted them. I never said anywhere that Free agent QBs are better. Your stats above prove the point. You have 10QBs listed that were drafted that won the super bowl from 1966 to 1996. How many QB's were drafted in the first round during those years that never won a super bowl with their original team.
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2012mom
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Post by 2012mom on Mar 18, 2022 15:25:42 GMT -6
Yet another example of someone guessing without bothering to look things up. 1996 Favre was drafted by ATL, but they gave up on him and traded him to GB 1994 Steve Young was brought in to back up Joe Montana 1991 Rypien was another 6th round accident 1987 Doug Williams wasn't in the NFL for a few seasons before Washington signed him, and he barely played until this season 1983 Plunkett was brought in to back up Stabler 1982 Theismann was brought in to back up Billy Kilmer 1980 Plunkett was brought in to back up Stabler 1972 Ed Morall was brought in to back up Bob Griese 1970 Unitas was drafted by Pittsburgh, but never played a game for them. He became a Colt the next year 1969 Len Dawson was on his 3rd team before he started his 3rd NFL game, for the Dallas Texans, which became the KC Chiefs 1995 Aikman was drafted 1993 Aikman was drafted 1992 Aikman was drafted 1990 Simms was drafted 1989 Montana was drafted 1988 Montana was drafted 1986 Simms was drafted 1985 Jim McMahon was drafted 1984 Montana was drafted 1981 Montana was drafted 1979 Bradshaw was drafted 1978 Bradshaw was drafted 1977 Staubach was drafted 1976 Stabler was drafted 1975 Bradshaw was drafted 1974 Bradshaw was drafted 1973 Bob Griese was drafted 1971 Staubach was drafted 1968 Broadway Joe was drafted 1967 Bart Starr was drafted 1966 Bart Starr was drafted From 1966-1996: 10 QBs that were brought in as backups, either undrafted or drafted by a different team, won one or more Super Bowls 21 QBs who win the other Super Bowls we're drafted by the team with which they won the SB. Again, 68% of Super Bowls in this year range were won by building around a QB the winning team drafted. Did you not comprehend what I posted.ย I said 30% of drafted QB's in the first round from 2011-2030 become franchise QBs for the team that drafted them.ย I never said anywhere that Free agent QBs are better.ย Your stats above prove the point.ย You have 10QBs listed that were drafted that won the super bowl from 1966 to 1996.ย How many QB's were drafted in the first round during those years that never won a super bowl with their original team.ย ย I should have eliminated all but your comment about Brady skewing the numbers. That's the only part of your post to which I was referring. The percentage of QBs winning a SB with the team that drafted them in the Brady era is virtually identical (68%) to the rate of drafted QBs winning the SB with the team that drafted them in the earlier part of the SB era. The question you address, that of the rate at which a team can expect to be successful in drafting a QB, is actually not something I particularly care about. I don't care how many times one needs to go to the well to get a QB, I simply know that a significant majority of teams who have won Super Bowls have done so by building around a QB they've drafted. But if I DID care about the likely success rate of picking a successful QB, then I would say that the success rate is going to vary wildly from year to year, in part because of the available QB talent in the draft, and in part based on the teams doing the picking. If you look at the 2004 draft, for example, three of the four first round QBs have been to the playoffs multiple times (E Manning, Ben R, and Rivers), and of course, two of them have won multiple Super Bowls. One's chances of a successful 1st round QB pick that year were 75%. OTOH, there are simply years that are devoid if QB talent, like 2013. The league acknowledged the lack of talent by having only one QB picked in round one (EJ Manuel), and only Geno Smith and Mike Glennon are hanging around on roosters as of 2021. But besides the player talent pool, the talent evaluation capability of the franchise that's picking makes a difference, too. There is a reason that Archie Manning advised Eli to hold out if the Chargers drafted him. He knew that they had been a bad franchise. I personally think that Rivers and Eli weren't all that different, talent-wise, and if their roles had been reversed, it's quite possible that Rivers, not Eli, would have two SB rings. The thing that separates champion QBs from also-rans is their intangibles, not their physical ability, once they have some baseline level. Jordan Love had the best arm strength of any QB in the 2020 draft, but so far, he has shown nothing in the few chances he's had to get on the field. Still, the first round picks that year look like at least 50% successful, with Burrow and Herbert.
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RF54
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Post by RF54 on Mar 18, 2022 15:31:11 GMT -6
2019 Mahomes was drafted 2018 Brady was drafted 2016 Brady was drafted 2014 Brady was drafted 2013 Wilson was drafted 2012 Flacco was drafted 2011 Eli was drafted 2010 Rodgers was drafted 2008 Big Ben was drafted 2007 Eli was drafted 2006 P. Manning was drafted 2005 Big Ben was drafted 2004 Brady 2003 Brady 2001 Brady was drafted as an afterthought 1998 and 1997 Elway was drafted The bottom line is that 68% of the time in the past 25 years, the Super Bowl winning team drafted their starting QB. Also, if you have a good enough team built, the odds are basically equal that you can bring in a marginally competent QB and win the SB. If you are going to list Brady as a drafted QB, then it needs to be pointed out that he was passed by every single team imn the NFL 5 times! Including the team that took him in the 6th. NOBODY knew what he was going to be.
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tavike
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Post by tavike on Mar 18, 2022 15:43:14 GMT -6
Did you not comprehend what I posted. I said 30% of drafted QB's in the first round from 2011-2030 become franchise QBs for the team that drafted them. I never said anywhere that Free agent QBs are better. Your stats above prove the point. You have 10QBs listed that were drafted that won the super bowl from 1966 to 1996. How many QB's were drafted in the first round during those years that never won a super bowl with their original team. I should have eliminated all but your comment about Brady skewing the numbers. That's the only part of your post to which I was referring. The percentage of QBs winning a SB with the team that drafted them in the Brady era is virtually identical (68%) to the rate of drafted QBs winning the SB with the team that drafted them in the earlier part of the SB era. The question you address, that of the rate at which a team can expect to be successful in drafting a QB, is actually not something I particularly care about. I don't care how many times one needs to go to the well to get a QB, I simply know that a significant majority of teams who have won Super Bowls have done so by building around a QB they've drafted. But if I DID care about the likely success rate of picking a successful QB, then I would say that the success rate is going to vary wildly from year to year, in part because of the available QB talent in the draft, and in part based on the teams doing the picking. If you look at the 2004 draft, for example, three of the four first round QBs have been to the playoffs multiple times (E Manning, Ben R, and Rivers), and of course, two of them have won multiple Super Bowls. One's chances of a successful 1st round QB pick that year were 75%. OTOH, there are simply years that are devoid if QB talent, like 2013. The league acknowledged the lack of talent by having only one QB picked in round one (EJ Manuel), and only Geno Smith and Mike Glennon are hanging around on roosters as of 2021. But besides the player talent pool, the talent evaluation capability of the franchise that's picking makes a difference, too. There is a reason that Archie Manning advised Eli to hold out if the Chargers drafted him. He knew that they had been a bad franchise. I personally think that Rivers and Eli weren't all that different, talent-wise, and if their roles had been reversed, it's quite possible that Rivers, not Eli, would have two SB rings. The thing that separates champion QBs from also-rans is their intangibles, not their physical ability, once they have some baseline level. Jordan Love had the best arm strength of any QB in the 2020 draft, but so far, he has shown nothing in the few chances he's had to get on the field. Still, the first round picks that year look like at least 50% successful, with Burrow and Herbert. we both agree that if varies wildly year to year. This year does not on the surface seem like a good year for QB's and I don't think next year will be a sterling year either. Although, I do like Malick Willis.
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2012mom
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Post by 2012mom on Mar 18, 2022 15:55:59 GMT -6
2019 Mahomes was drafted 2018 Brady was drafted 2016 Brady was drafted 2014 Brady was drafted 2013 Wilson was drafted 2012 Flacco was drafted 2011 Eli was drafted 2010 Rodgers was drafted 2008 Big Ben was drafted 2007 Eli was drafted 2006 P. Manning was drafted 2005 Big Ben was drafted 2004 Brady 2003 Brady 2001 Brady was drafted as an afterthought 1998 and 1997 Elway was drafted The bottom line is that 68% of the time in the past 25 years, the Super Bowl winning team drafted their starting QB. Also, if you have a good enough team built, the odds are basically equal that you can bring in a marginally competent QB and win the SB. If you are going to list Brady as a drafted QB, then it needs to be pointed out that he was passed by every single team imn the NFL 5 times!ย Including the team that took him in the 6th.ย NOBODY knew what he was going to be.ย ย So what? The Patriots had a good starting QB, yet they drafted one. And every 3-4 years while they had Brady, they drafted another one. GB still had Favre when they drafted Rodgers in the 1st. The 49ers brought in Young when they still had Montana. There have been quite a few Super Bowls won by teams that brought guys in to be backups who turned into Super Bowl winners or even MVPs, asI showed in my previous few posts. I've reason that I was glad to be rid of Rick was that he never had a deep QB bench, and that's been especially true with keeping Mannion.
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