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Post by 1angryviking on Mar 17, 2022 15:50:05 GMT -6
What is it? Are they creating holes by cutting Kendricks and trading Hunter or are they restructuring and keeping them... can't have it both ways. Once you make up your mind... the Vikings are currently sitting at 41+ million in current cap space with very few substantive FA's to retain and basically nothing committed to 2024. Then, they have clear outs with current high priced vets like Theilen and Kendrics to create 20+ million in cap space. The 2023 cap crunch is just not there Like i said they will free up some cap if the move off Kendricks now for 23'. If they restructure Adam and Kendricks it will add to both 23' and 24' cap hits and will no longer be easy outs in 23'. Cook is an easy out next year, but if they restructure him once again more cap moving forward. 18 mil for 22' and 23' draft classes by 23'. They have already pushed cap into 24' on both Kirk and Harry deals. They will eventually move some From O'neill but it will be a small amount. Any more free agents they sign will add to future cap. Every move they make to create cap room will effect 23' & 24' cap. I guess right now I see Phillips as a rotational piece that sort of fills a hole as a run stopper. I think Hicks is most likely a cheaper replacement for Kendricks. If they keep Adam, Hunter, and Kendricks it will take away more future cap space. If they jettison 2 or 3 of them they create some cap room now and more in the future, but Osborn becomes a starter and 2 other holes created. P.S. Vikings are 26th in cap space for 2024 right now though that can change. There are a few seasons and a lot “if’s” involved in this hand wringing scenario
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Post by marshalltohof on Mar 17, 2022 16:48:42 GMT -6
Hate to say it but your #4 impact player made the team worse than it was the previous year... Wrong again. The defense was at fault. Vikes had the lead in several games in the final minutes only to allow the opposing offense to score with ease. Get the facts right for God’s sake. I don’t think Kirk is the best QB but he did not cost the team games last year. Rewatch and educate yourself a bit. I was referring to 2018 when Cousins was signed as a free agent vs 2017. I attended several games in person and Keenum was very impressive enroute to a 12 and 3 record, 1 fumble lost/7 int. Cousins came in the next year and had turnover issues (7 fumbles lost/10 interceptions) ending up 8-7-1 and missing playoffs. Those are facts and I'm convinced Vikings would have had a better record in 2018 if they kept Keenum (continuity factor and more cap space to improve other areas of the team.) And you mentioned wrong again. I don't recall ever being wrong before. But I could be wrong about that ;-)
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Post by redbird87 on Mar 17, 2022 23:39:28 GMT -6
For all of you that can't understand what the front office is doing and why they resigned Cousins I went back to the research pile. Since Brady was drafted through 2020 ( I didn't include 2021) as not enough data to go off yet.... there have been 256 QB's drafted. Of those I broke them down into Tier 1 Tier 2 and Tier 3 type people. Tier 1 are Proven Hall of Fame players or on the cusp. Tier 2 are players teams have built teams around, enjoyed long careers, been solid QB's and possess above average talent (could move to tier 1 but may never). Tier 3 are Fringe players: Players that have been good but not great, maybe had some successes but teams not willing to really build around - usually are limited in some capacity. I'm not saying my list is perfect, but if any thing I gave the opposing view the benefit of the doubt. As example I included several players in Tier 2 that could be construed as Tier 3 but I gave the opposing point of view the benefit of the doubt and Tier 2 makes their argument stronger. My Tier 1's as of now are: - E Manning
- T Brady
- D Brees
- B Roethlisberger
- A Rodgers o
- R Wilson
- P Mahomes (feel he's on his way)
Tier B
- Mike Vick
- Carson Palmer
- Philip Rivers
- Matt Ryan
Matt Stafford - Cam Newton
- Andrew Luck
- Deshaun Watson
- Josh Allen
- Joe Burrow
- Justin Herbert
- Derek Carr
- Kirk Cousins
- Dak Prescott
- Marc Bulger
- Lamar Jackson
- Chad Pennington
- Alex Smith
- Jay Cutler
- Joe Flacco
- Ryan Tannehill
- Kyler Murray
- Jimmy Garoppolo
- Matt Schaub
- Odds of Hitting a Tier 1 or 2 Overall = 9%
- Odds in Rd 1 : 25%
- Odds in Rd 2 : 9%
- Odds in Rd 3 : 4%
- Odds in Rd 4: 7%
- Odds in Rd 5: 0%
- Odds in Rd 6: 4%
- Odds in Rd 7: 0%
Now the thing you have to understand is that these odds don't take selection into account. So essentially what that means is if you have the #1 pick and can choose from ANY of the players available this would have been your success rate because you could have chosen from all available sources in each round. But, if you do not have the #1 pic then not all options exist, and your odds of success would have dropped considerably because the unit of success may already be removed and the pool is smaller.
So in essence what I'm trying to show people is getting rid of a Tier 1 or 2...even 3 commodity that is not in decline and is not a problem on the team is an ill advised move because the likelihood of finding a player capable of playing at a similar or better level is extremely low unless that replacement is already a known commodity! Based on the last 20 some years IF I draft #1 and I decide to draft a QB with that 1st pick my probability of missing completely was 75%. If I don't draft number 1 my odds of losing keep going up. And if I decide I'll take a QB in the first 3 Rounds with the 1st pick in one of the 3 rounds my odds of picking a bust go up to 82%. Again....if I don't have the 1st pick in each of those 3 rounds my odds of selecting a bust are even higher than 82%!
Extending Cousins should keep us somewhat competitive in 22 yes....but mostly it was about making sure we have a viable quarterback option in 23 and 24 in place and aren't buying lottery tickets in the draft. It gives us time to find a replacement if we can and it gives us time to extend Cousins again if he's playing well and a replacement has yet to be found. The point is this team's window could be open as early as 23 but should be wide open in 24 so long as we have a competent QB. Nothing worse then having a team built to win and under contract but you don't have a QB that can make it all go....just ask Indy and Denver! It's like buying a Ferrari for your wife's birthday only to find out she doesn't know how to drive a stick shift. By the time she figures it out....the transmission will need to be replaced!
Yes we could have traded Cousins for some picks, but those picks would have been limited by his salary but we still would have gotten a decent haul. But doing that puts us behind the 8 ball to find a QB within 2 years with 10-12 other teams looking as well. Those are not good odds at all.
As for the rest of the Vets....I can understand perhaps what we are doing because we don't really have enough cap space to do much and our roster is a big question mark, but I'd still prefer to bite the bullet so we aren't left with Dead Cap in 23. I'm fine with Hunter either way, he's a great player I'd love to have at our disposal, but I just don't think he wants to be here, so let's move on and hopefully land a fantastic replacement in a deep draft for Edge. It's a lot easier to find an above average DE than an above Average QB. I like that in year 1 we aren't making any big commitments with huge roster bonuses we are stuck with for years to come and we've kept most everything very short and very flexible. My hope is that we don't restructure Theilen and Kendricks and either trade, cut or just play out 1 more year worst case scenario. But we are going to need to sign at least 1 FA that can either A) Be a solid C, B) Be a solid 3T or C) Solid OLB or D) Be a solid CB. I don't think we can afford to go into the draft needing to fill all 4 of those positions with players we need to count on day 1. Obviously if we cut Hunter that frees up a lot of space but also creates a hole. I actually think if we are going to run this defense CB, OLB and 3T are our biggest holes. There is a falloff from Hunter at DE but we have stable of potential talent capable of playing Edge in a Fangio defense. But what we lack is a dominant 3T (Think Donald) and a Dominant OLB (Think Chubb/Mack). Maybe one of our DE could fit that OLB role ( I think Wonnam) played it in college, but I don't think he has the skillset or strength to dominate which is kind of a necessity for the position.
Hope this helps people understand why you keep Cousins. While I disagree.....even if you are of the opinion Cousins can't carry a team on his own....by 2023 this team should be in VERY strong position both offensively and defensively so long as we draft well, but it will still need somebody that can "shift the car". And if we don't draft well....23 wouldn't matter whether we got rid of Cousins or didn't! So far I give the Front office a B+. I sure as hell think they've done a better job than GB!!
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lunas
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Post by lunas on Mar 18, 2022 0:39:00 GMT -6
Remember “suck for Luck”, “tank for Trevor”?
The higher we draft, the greater chance you have to land the least potential bust. It’s all about the odds.
By keeping Kirk, you almost guarantee a .500 record and no Super Bowl. That is the worst scenario you could ask for. You increase your odds of landing Stafford, Luck, Manning, Aikman, Bradshaw if you have Sean Mannion playing QB and going 0-16.
The idea of being relevant but not being good enough to win a SB is foolish. We have trying this with retreads since the Tarkenton days ended. Where has that got us?
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Post by frantheman10 on Mar 18, 2022 4:40:44 GMT -6
Remember “suck for Luck”, “tank for Trevor”? The higher we draft, the greater chance you have to land the least potential bust. It’s all about the odds. By keeping Kirk, you almost guarantee a .500 record and no Super Bowl. That is the worst scenario you could ask for. You increase your odds of landing Stafford, Luck, Manning, Aikman, Bradshaw if you have Sean Mannion playing QB and going 0-16. The idea of being relevant but not being good enough to win a SB is foolish. We have trying this with retreads since the Tarkenton days ended. Where has that got us? This is spot on. No one wants to sit through a 2 win season but sometimes it’s necessary to reset the team from a cap prospective and give yourself a chance to draft a top QB. There’s a risk that the team gets stuck in perpetual suck land like the Lions but you could be the Bengals and go from 2 wins to the SB in two years. I already see some fans here starting to talk themselves k to being optimistic about 2022. Kirk finally has a coach he can work with. Better coaching on defense. Little upgrades in FA. Young guys popping. Dream on. We can roll back the 2021 with Lombardi as HC and Walsh as OC and Beichek as DC and we’ll win 8 games.
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RF54
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Post by RF54 on Mar 18, 2022 5:38:03 GMT -6
2018 draft had 3 starters out of 5 selected in 1st round. 2017 2 starters out of 3 selected in the first round. Of those 5 Mayfield is the only shaky franchise guy, but he has started 4 years and is in his 5th and now the team wants to move off him. 2of the 3 1st rd QB's are starters on their team. 2020 3 1st rounders 3 starter with only Tua as questionable. That is 10 franchise QB's in 4 drafts with a hit rate over 60% and only 2 questionable starters in Mayfield and Tua of those 3. I found you 8 true franchise QB's and 2 regular starters in 4 drafts. Obviously way to soon to look at 21' draft. 4 years 8 absolute franchise guys and 2 starters on top of that. I have a total different definition of a franchise QB than you 2018 1 1 CLE Baker Mayfield 1 3 NYJ Sam Darnold 1 7 BUF Josh Allen 1 10 ARI Josh Rosen 1 32 BAL Lamar Jackson Only Josh and Lamar 2020 Burow Hebert Tua Love only Burrow and hebert Tua is no where close to a franchise QB. A starter is not a franchise QB. When you go from 2011 to 2020 my numbers are correct. You can pick and choose a year that was better in that time frame but over the last 10 years the numbers are the numbers. That said most of your Franchise QB's are going to be found in the 1st round by far, so if you're trying to get one you are going to have a better chance getting him in the first round. BTW Your 30% rate in your original text is correct by these numbers This is ridiculous to put young QBs down as future HOF... After the first year Baker looked like a stud and Josh Allen looked like a bust. Give the class 10 - 15 years and see what they have done. As far as Jackson goes I wouldn't want to have to depend on him to complete a game winning drive with his arm. His legs will go at some point and that he will be just another guy. The 20 class looks okay so far because Burrow and Herbert are off to good starts but again they have miles to go before being thought of as HOF worthy. And this class? 20% chance of HOF, no way. Even if you could get your pick of the bunch and put him with great coaching and surround him with talent you would still have less than a 10% chance of having a HOF QB. They just don't happen. Brady is special because of what makes him tick, not anything that could be measured at the combine. NOBODY knows with QBs.
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RF54
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Post by RF54 on Mar 18, 2022 5:42:08 GMT -6
My Tier 1's as of now are: - E Manning
- T Brady
- D Brees
- B Roethlisberger
- A Rodgers o
- R Wilson
- P Mahomes (feel he's on his way)
I hope you made a mistake here, E Manning is lucky to be considered Tier 2.
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Post by redbird87 on Mar 18, 2022 6:57:39 GMT -6
My Tier 1's as of now are: - E Manning
- T Brady
- D Brees
- B Roethlisberger
- A Rodgers o
- R Wilson
- P Mahomes (feel he's on his way)
I hope you made a mistake here, E Manning is lucky to be considered Tier 2. I get that. Frankly he’s the polar opposite of his brother. Eli was average during regular seasons but outstanding in the playoffs, while Peyton was kind of the opposite. But 2 SB wins carries a lot of weight and I built this list with the opposers in mind. I also included Lamar as tier 2 and Ivreally view him as a 3. I agree, without his run ability he is not a good QB and I’d say the same if Cam Newton. Cousins is 100% capable of getting to a SB and that is what people fail to recognize. Just because you haven’t gotten there doesn’t mean you can’t get there, but being talented, being accurate, being able to stress a defense as a QB drastically improves your chances. Once in awhile a Rex Grossmsn or Dilfer type make it to the SB….but it’s extremely rare. You rarely see a SB team without at least a tier 3 QB. So when you have one…you don’t get rid of them. Alex Smith was a tier 3 QB, he was probably good enough with the right team around him, but a tier 2 QB improves the odds. But KC didn’t get rid of him until they knew what they had in Mahomes.
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Post by mjollnir on Mar 18, 2022 7:08:14 GMT -6
Remember “suck for Luck”, “tank for Trevor”? The higher we draft, the greater chance you have to land the least potential bust. It’s all about the odds. By keeping Kirk, you almost guarantee a .500 record and no Super Bowl. That is the worst scenario you could ask for. You increase your odds of landing Stafford, Luck, Manning, Aikman, Bradshaw if you have Sean Mannion playing QB and going 0-16. The idea of being relevant but not being good enough to win a SB is foolish. We have trying this with retreads since the Tarkenton days ended. Where has that got us? This is spot on. No one wants to sit through a 2 win season but sometimes it’s necessary to reset the team from a cap prospective and give yourself a chance to draft a top QB. There’s a risk that the team gets stuck in perpetual suck land like the Lions but you could be the Bengals and go from 2 wins to the SB in two years. I already see some fans here starting to talk themselves k to being optimistic about 2022. Kirk finally has a coach he can work with. Better coaching on defense. Little upgrades in FA. Young guys popping. Dream on. We can roll back the 2021 with Lombardi as HC and Walsh as OC and Beichek as DC and we’ll win 8 games. I call BS. The losing mentality is just that. Since 2012 5 teams have admitted to tanking to better their draft position Miami, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Washington and Cincinnati. Only Cincinnati has come close to making it work, with admittedly Jacksonville only a year out since getting Trevor. Take a look below at the history of number 1 QB's: 2021 NFL Trevor Lawrence QB Jacksonville Jaguars Clemson 2020 NFL Joe Burrow QB Cincinnati Bengals LSU 2019 NFL Kyler Murray QB Arizona Cardinals Oklahoma 2018 NFL Baker Mayfield QB Cleveland Browns Oklahoma 2016 NFL Jared Goff QB Los Angeles Rams California 2015 NFL Jameis Winston QB Tampa Bay Buccaneers Florida St. 2012 NFL Andrew Luck QB Indianapolis Colts Stanford 2011 NFL Cam Newton QB Carolina Panthers Auburn 2010 NFL Sam Bradford QB St. Louis Rams Oklahoma 2009 NFL Matthew Stafford QB Detroit Lions Georgia 2007 NFL JaMarcus Russell QB Oakland Raiders LSU 2005 NFL Alex Smith QB San Francisco 49ers Utah 2004 NFL Eli Manning QB San Diego Chargers Mississippi 2003 NFL Carson Palmer QB Cincinnati Bengals USC 2002 NFL David Carr QB Houston Texans Fresno St. 2001 NFL Michael Vick QB Atlanta Falcons Virginia Tech 1999 NFL Tim Couch QB Cleveland Browns Kentucky 1998 NFL Peyton Manning QB Indianapolis Colts Tennessee 1993 NFL Drew Bledsoe QB New England Patriots Washington St. 1990 NFL Jeff George QB Indianapolis Colts Illinois 1989 NFL Troy Aikman QB Dallas Cowboys UCLA 1987 NFL Vinny Testaverde QB Tampa Bay Buccaneers Miami (FL) 1983 NFL John Elway QB Baltimore Colts Stanford 1975 NFL Steve Bartkowski QB Atlanta Falcons California 1971 NFL Jim Plunkett QB New England Patriots Stanford 1970 NFL Terry Bradshaw QB Pittsburgh Steelers Louisiana Tech
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Post by frantheman10 on Mar 18, 2022 8:02:14 GMT -6
This is spot on. No one wants to sit through a 2 win season but sometimes it’s necessary to reset the team from a cap prospective and give yourself a chance to draft a top QB. There’s a risk that the team gets stuck in perpetual suck land like the Lions but you could be the Bengals and go from 2 wins to the SB in two years. I already see some fans here starting to talk themselves k to being optimistic about 2022. Kirk finally has a coach he can work with. Better coaching on defense. Little upgrades in FA. Young guys popping. Dream on. We can roll back the 2021 with Lombardi as HC and Walsh as OC and Beichek as DC and we’ll win 8 games. I call BS. The losing mentality is just that. Since 2012 5 teams have admitted to tanking to better their draft position Miami, Jacksonville, Cleveland, Washington and Cincinnati. Only Cincinnati has come close to making it work, with admittedly Jacksonville only a year out since getting Trevor. Take a look below at the history of number 1 QB's: 2021 NFL Trevor Lawrence QB Jacksonville Jaguars Clemson 2020 NFL Joe Burrow QB Cincinnati Bengals LSU 2019 NFL Kyler Murray QB Arizona Cardinals Oklahoma 2018 NFL Baker Mayfield QB Cleveland Browns Oklahoma 2016 NFL Jared Goff QB Los Angeles Rams California 2015 NFL Jameis Winston QB Tampa Bay Buccaneers Florida St. 2012 NFL Andrew Luck QB Indianapolis Colts Stanford 2011 NFL Cam Newton QB Carolina Panthers Auburn 2010 NFL Sam Bradford QB St. Louis Rams Oklahoma 2009 NFL Matthew Stafford QB Detroit Lions Georgia 2007 NFL JaMarcus Russell QB Oakland Raiders LSU 2005 NFL Alex Smith QB San Francisco 49ers Utah 2004 NFL Eli Manning QB San Diego Chargers Mississippi 2003 NFL Carson Palmer QB Cincinnati Bengals USC 2002 NFL David Carr QB Houston Texans Fresno St. 2001 NFL Michael Vick QB Atlanta Falcons Virginia Tech 1999 NFL Tim Couch QB Cleveland Browns Kentucky 1998 NFL Peyton Manning QB Indianapolis Colts Tennessee 1993 NFL Drew Bledsoe QB New England Patriots Washington St. 1990 NFL Jeff George QB Indianapolis Colts Illinois 1989 NFL Troy Aikman QB Dallas Cowboys UCLA 1987 NFL Vinny Testaverde QB Tampa Bay Buccaneers Miami (FL) 1983 NFL John Elway QB Baltimore Colts Stanford 1975 NFL Steve Bartkowski QB Atlanta Falcons California 1971 NFL Jim Plunkett QB New England Patriots Stanford 1970 NFL Terry Bradshaw QB Pittsburgh Steelers Louisiana Tech Like I said, stripping the roster in a rebuild is a risk and more often than not doesn't work. But what this team has been doing isn't working either unless you're ok with being .500 until they put you in the ground for a dirt nap.
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Post by intrenched1 on Mar 18, 2022 8:27:40 GMT -6
Remember “suck for Luck”, “tank for Trevor”? Sure do! The first one totally failed, and the second sure hasn't succeeded yet. And those are fan driven slogans. I'm not aware of any team owner or HC openly admitting to throwing a whole season for draft position.
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Post by mjollnir on Mar 18, 2022 8:49:13 GMT -6
Remember “suck for Luck”, “tank for Trevor”? Sure do! The first one totally failed, and the second sure hasn't succeeded yet. And those are fan driven slogans. I'm not aware of any team owner or HC openly admitting to throwing a whole season for draft position. If they openly admitted to it they would face legal action and sanctions from the league.
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Post by 2012mom on Mar 18, 2022 9:18:29 GMT -6
Remember “suck for Luck”, “tank for Trevor”? Sure do! The first one totally failed, and the second sure hasn't succeeded yet. And those are fan driven slogans. I'm not aware of any team owner or HC openly admitting to throwing a whole season for draft position. The "suck for Luck," effort "totally failed," you say? The addition of Andrew Luck was the biggest factor in making the 2012 Colts an 11-5 playoff team, after they went 2-14 the previous year. In fact, the colts went 11-5 Luck's first three years, winning two division championships in a row, and losing in the 2014 AFCC game when New England put up 45 points on them. By that time, their terrible OL had led to Luck being constantly injured. Luck has won three playoff games, and took his team to the playoffs his first three years. Cousins hasn't done that in ten years, even though he was supposedly "the missing piece" when he was brought here in 2018.
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Post by marrauder on Mar 18, 2022 9:20:06 GMT -6
I think old minded owners and fo staff thought they were ready for young fresh ideas and they are not. I see the owners are afraid to let kwesi and koc actually try a new path
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Post by marrauder on Mar 18, 2022 9:20:34 GMT -6
I think old minded owners and fo staff thought they were ready for young fresh ideas and they are not. I see the owners are afraid to let kwesi and koc actually try a new path. They don't see yoy need a step back so eti.es to gi two ahead
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