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Post by 1angryviking on Mar 17, 2022 12:12:40 GMT -6
I think this a frustrated fan base that is stuck is in a perpetual negative mood. If there were positive news, the fan base wouldnβt be so negative. The blueprint to win a SB is simple. 1. Have a HOF QB. 2. Have a HOF QB on a rookie contract. 3. If you donβt have the first 2, have a pass rushing defensive line that will disrupt 1 and 2. The Vikes must have a new blueprint because none of the 3 rules are being followed. That's ridiculous expectations... where is the FO supposed to find a HOF QB on a rookie contract this offseason?
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Post by 1angryviking on Mar 17, 2022 12:16:30 GMT -6
A GM planning a rebuild 3 years out is tantamount to saying I have done a terrible job at drafting for the past 4+ years. It just would have meant seeking a new QB while rebuilding the defense. And throwing away a season in a weak NFC... Vikings are going to win 10 games next year. They also already upgraded 20% of the defense without using a draft pick. Lastly, I don't think most fans underestimate how badly this team has been coached for the past 3 years.
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Vikeroo
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Post by Vikeroo on Mar 17, 2022 12:19:30 GMT -6
If there were positive news, the fan base wouldnβt be so negative. The blueprint to win a SB is simple. 1. Have a HOF QB. 2. Have a HOF QB on a rookie contract. 3. If you donβt have the first 2, have a pass rushing defensive line that will disrupt 1 and 2. The Vikes must have a new blueprint because none of the 3 rules are being followed. That's ridiculous expectations... where is the FO supposed to find a HOF QB on a rookie contract this offseason? about a 20% chance one of these guys in the draft is a future franchise QB it is just tough figuring out who that guy is. I am lowering it for the draft class quality it is actually like 27%-30% chance on a 1st-2nd round QB. Remember some guys like Mahomes came from classes like this. People thought Allen was drafted to high. Jackson barely made the 1st round.
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Vikeroo
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Post by Vikeroo on Mar 17, 2022 12:21:40 GMT -6
It just would have meant seeking a new QB while rebuilding the defense. And throwing away a season in a weak NFC... Vikings are going to win 10 games next year. They also already upgraded 20% of the defense without using a draft pick. Lastly, I don't think most fans underestimate how badly this team has been coached for the past 3 years. Kendricks and Hunter are most likely gone and they need at least 2 CB's already. I guess I do not see upgrades as much as lateral moves creating more holes on the defense. Either that or they will cripple 23' cap as well.
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Post by 1angryviking on Mar 17, 2022 12:26:11 GMT -6
That's ridiculous expectations... where is the FO supposed to find a HOF QB on a rookie contract this offseason? about a 20% chance one of these guys in the draft is a future franchise QB it is just tough figuring out who that guy is. I am lowering it for the draft class quality it is actually like 27%-30% chance on a 1st-2nd round QB. Remember some guys like Mahomes came from classes like this. People thought Allen was drafted to high. Jackson barely made the 1st round. I've been saying the same thing for months... drafting Malik Willis and having him sit year a behind Cousins was my preference. But, Cousins is back for the next 2 seasons at workable QB #'s and the team has enough pieces to contend. People are just being ridiculously negative about everything... and that's coming from me.
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Post by 1angryviking on Mar 17, 2022 12:28:40 GMT -6
And throwing away a season in a weak NFC... Vikings are going to win 10 games next year. They also already upgraded 20% of the defense without using a draft pick. Lastly, I don't think most fans underestimate how badly this team has been coached for the past 3 years. Kendricks and Hunter are most likely gone and they need at least 2 CB's already. I guess I do not see upgrades as much as lateral moves creating more holes on the defense. Either that or they will cripple 23' cap as well. Jeez, take things as they come... if they create holes with Kendricks and Hunter they create capital in draft picks and cap. The cap room and flexibility for 2023 is more than ample.
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Vikeroo
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Post by Vikeroo on Mar 17, 2022 12:33:50 GMT -6
Kendricks and Hunter are most likely gone and they need at least 2 CB's already. I guess I do not see upgrades as much as lateral moves creating more holes on the defense. Either that or they will cripple 23' cap as well. Jeez, take things as they come... if they create holes with Kendricks and Hunter they create capital in draft picks and cap. The cap room and flexibility for 2023 is more than ample. They have already eaten up 2/3rds of the 23' space they had before extending Kirk. There are at least 2 or 3 more restructures to go. They will get some back if they move off Hunter and Kendricks. There is a very good chance the defensive roster will be worse this year then last. Maybe they get 3 rookies to hit right off the bat, but both pass rushers & CB tend to take 2 to 3 years to fully develop.
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Post by 1angryviking on Mar 17, 2022 12:40:24 GMT -6
Jeez, take things as they come... if they create holes with Kendricks and Hunter they create capital in draft picks and cap. The cap room and flexibility for 2023 is more than ample. They have already eaten up 2/3rds of the 23' space they had before extending Kirk. There are at least 2 or 3 more restructures to go. They will get some back if they move off Hunter and Kendricks. There is a very good chance the defensive roster will be worse this year then last. Maybe they get 3 rookies to hit right off the bat, but both pass rushers & CB tend to take 2 to 3 years to fully develop. What is it? Are they creating holes by cutting Kendricks and trading Hunter or are they restructuring and keeping them... can't have it both ways. Once you make up your mind... the Vikings are currently sitting at 41+ million in current cap space with very few substantive FA's to retain and basically nothing committed to 2024. Then, they have clear outs with current high priced vets like Theilen and Kendrics to create 20+ million in cap space. The 2023 cap crunch is just not there
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Vikeroo
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Post by Vikeroo on Mar 17, 2022 12:53:52 GMT -6
They have already eaten up 2/3rds of the 23' space they had before extending Kirk. There are at least 2 or 3 more restructures to go. They will get some back if they move off Hunter and Kendricks. There is a very good chance the defensive roster will be worse this year then last. Maybe they get 3 rookies to hit right off the bat, but both pass rushers & CB tend to take 2 to 3 years to fully develop. What is it? Are they creating holes by cutting Kendricks and trading Hunter or are they restructuring and keeping them... can't have it both ways. Once you make up your mind... the Vikings are currently sitting at 41+ million in current cap space with very few substantive FA's to retain and basically nothing committed to 2024. Then, they have clear outs with current high priced vets like Theilen and Kendrics to create 20+ million in cap space. The 2023 cap crunch is just not there Like i said they will free up some cap if the move off Kendricks now for 23'. If they restructure Adam and Kendricks it will add to both 23' and 24' cap hits and will no longer be easy outs in 23'. Cook is an easy out next year, but if they restructure him once again more cap moving forward. 18 mil for 22' and 23' draft classes by 23'. They have already pushed cap into 24' on both Kirk and Harry deals. They will eventually move some From O'neill but it will be a small amount. Any more free agents they sign will add to future cap. Every move they make to create cap room will effect 23' & 24' cap. I guess right now I see Phillips as a rotational piece that sort of fills a hole as a run stopper. I think Hicks is most likely a cheaper replacement for Kendricks. If they keep Adam, Hunter, and Kendricks it will take away more future cap space. If they jettison 2 or 3 of them they create some cap room now and more in the future, but Osborn becomes a starter and 2 other holes created. P.S. Vikings are 26th in cap space for 2024 right now though that can change.
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Post by redbird87 on Mar 17, 2022 13:04:18 GMT -6
That's ridiculous expectations... where is the FO supposed to find a HOF QB on a rookie contract this offseason? about a 20% chance one of these guys in the draft is a future franchise QB it is just tough figuring out who that guy is. I am lowering it for the draft class quality it is actually like 27%-30% chance on a 1st-2nd round QB. Remember some guys like Mahomes came from classes like this. People thought Allen was drafted to high. Jackson barely made the 1st round. Its 12% Franchise QB across both good and bad drafts the past 20 years. Those are not good odds and you mix in that this draft class sucks and those odds probably shade lower. Look at how many QB's the Browns have drafted over the years....they haven't had a franchise QB since Kosar and he retired in 1996. They are still looking. You don't get rid of effective QB play. Everyone needs to just calm down. The dead cap to get rid of all our vets (which I endorsed as a way to get under the cap if needed) is quite high and the return on Vet Trades aside from QB's has been abysmal. So, I'm not so sure the approach he is taking is the wrong one. This team is fully built on the Offensive side of the ball (save a C) and it is built on the cheap for the most part. So our pressing need is to retool the Defensive side of he ball. Given our limited cap space and not wanting to steal too much from future years cap space, keeping some of these Vets may actually be the EXACT right move. 1) With limited Draft Picks, cutting Kendricks or Smith just creates another hole to fill, but neither will fetch much higher than a 5th or 6th if any at all. So now you have more holes to fill with Pics that have a low probability of success. 2) If you can't replace with Draft Picks because we don't have enough high ones, then you'd have to try and fill via FA. While it would free up a little, probably not enough to bring in a player that will be an actual upgrade and you will likely have to commit to extended years to bring in that person. Do you really want to commit to an overpriced FA for multiple years when you may have a better in house solution on a rookie deal. Using the draft in year 1 to go strong at Edge. 3T or CB probably makes a lot of sense and then moving on from a guy like Kendricks or Theilen in 23. The dead cap is lower, we get a year to see what our in house people can do and then finish filling out our roster in 23 with draft and FA when we have more cap room and can go after some better prospects while not wasting cap on a player we may not even really need! The rebuild started started 2 years ago. We aren't looking to rebuild NOW!
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Vikeroo
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Post by Vikeroo on Mar 17, 2022 13:12:11 GMT -6
about a 20% chance one of these guys in the draft is a future franchise QB it is just tough figuring out who that guy is. I am lowering it for the draft class quality it is actually like 27%-30% chance on a 1st-2nd round QB. Remember some guys like Mahomes came from classes like this. People thought Allen was drafted to high. Jackson barely made the 1st round. Its 12% Franchise QB across both good and bad drafts the past 20 years. Those are not good odds and you mix in that this draft class sucks and those odds probably shade lower. Look at how many QB's the Browns have drafted over the years....they haven't had a franchise QB since Kosar and he retired in 1996. They are still looking. You don't get rid of effective QB play. Everyone needs to just calm down. The dead cap to get rid of all our vets (which I endorsed as a way to get under the cap if needed) is quite high and the return on Vet Trades aside from QB's has been abysmal. So, I'm not so sure the approach he is taking is the wrong one. This team is fully built on the Offensive side of the ball (save a C) and it is built on the cheap for the most part. So our pressing need is to retool the Defensive side of he ball. Given our limited cap space and not wanting to steal too much from future years cap space, keeping some of these Vets may actually be the EXACT right move. 1) With limited Draft Picks, cutting Kendricks or Smith just creates another hole to fill, but neither will fetch much higher than a 5th or 6th if any at all. So now you have more holes to fill with Pics that have a low probability of success. 2) If you can't replace with Draft Picks because we don't have enough high ones, then you'd have to try and fill via FA. While it would free up a little, probably not enough to bring in a player that will be an actual upgrade and you will likely have to commit to extended years to bring in that person. Do you really want to commit to an overpriced FA for multiple years when you may have a better in house solution on a rookie deal. Signing Cousins meant the team could be competitive not only in 22 but very competitive in 23 and I think that shifted the dynamic. When you start to see how little non QB Vets are fetching in trade right now, I think keeping a Hendricks and or Smith for a year perhaps makes sense. With little ammo gained in picks from trading a Vet player, that means you have to try and plug those gaps through FA where we really have little room to work with without sacrificing our future cap space. We'd likely have to commit to at least 3 years to bring in anybody that is a long term solution and we'd probably have to either pay more than the cap savings from the vet we cut in year 1 or we'd have to structure the contract to push the comp into future years. Using the draft in year 1 to go strong at Edge. 3T or CB probably makes alot of sense and then moving on from a guy like Kendricks in 23. His dead cap is lower, we get a year to see what our in house people can do and then finish filling out our roster in 23 with draft and FA when we have more cap room and can go after some better prospects while not wasting cap on a player we may not even really need! 12%? If you are asking for HoF level maybe. NFL starter much higher from first 2 rounds. Guys like Jimmy G, Mayfield, and Murray may not be HoF'ers but they are starting QB's who have taken teams to the playoffs.
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tavike
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Post by tavike on Mar 17, 2022 13:14:41 GMT -6
That's ridiculous expectations... where is the FO supposed to find a HOF QB on a rookie contract this offseason? about a 20% chance one of these guys in the draft is a future franchise QB it is just tough figuring out who that guy is. I am lowering it for the draft class quality it is actually like 27%-30% chance on a 1st-2nd round QB. Remember some guys like Mahomes came from classes like this. People thought Allen was drafted to high. Jackson barely made the 1st round. Out of all the QB's drafted from 2011 to 2020 (116), 31 were drafted in the 1st round, 9 total QB's out of 116 were considered franchise QB's while with their original team, 4 of the 116 won a SB with their original team. Only 3 of the 31 first rounders became franchise QB's with their original team, only 2 of the first round QB's have won a SB with their original team.
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Vikeroo
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Post by Vikeroo on Mar 17, 2022 13:23:17 GMT -6
about a 20% chance one of these guys in the draft is a future franchise QB it is just tough figuring out who that guy is. I am lowering it for the draft class quality it is actually like 27%-30% chance on a 1st-2nd round QB. Remember some guys like Mahomes came from classes like this. People thought Allen was drafted to high. Jackson barely made the 1st round. Out of all the QB's drafted from 2011 to 2020 (116), 31 were drafted in the 1st round, 9 total QB's out of 116 were considered franchise QB's while with their original team, 4 of the 116 won a SB with their original team. Only 3 of the 31 first rounders became franchise QB's with their original team, only 2 of the first round QB's have won a SB with their original team. 2018 draft had 3 starters out of 5 selected in 1st round. 2017 2 starters out of 3 selected in the first round. Of those 5 Mayfield is the only shaky franchise guy, but he has started 4 years and is in his 5th and now the team wants to move off him. 2of the 3 1st rd QB's are starters on their team. 2020 3 1st rounders 3 starter with only Tua as questionable. That is 10 franchise QB's in 4 drafts with a hit rate over 60% and only 2 questionable starters in Mayfield and Tua of those 3. I found you 8 true franchise QB's and 2 regular starters in 4 drafts. Obviously way to soon to look at 21' draft. 4 years 8 absolute franchise guys and 2 starters on top of that.
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tavike
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Post by tavike on Mar 17, 2022 14:40:02 GMT -6
Out of all the QB's drafted from 2011 to 2020 (116), 31 were drafted in the 1st round, 9 total QB's out of 116 were considered franchise QB's while with their original team, 4 of the 116 won a SB with their original team. Only 3 of the 31 first rounders became franchise QB's with their original team, only 2 of the first round QB's have won a SB with their original team. 2018 draft had 3 starters out of 5 selected in 1st round. 2017 2 starters out of 3 selected in the first round. Of those 5 Mayfield is the only shaky franchise guy, but he has started 4 years and is in his 5th and now the team wants to move off him. 2of the 3 1st rd QB's are starters on their team. 2020 3 1st rounders 3 starter with only Tua as questionable. That is 10 franchise QB's in 4 drafts with a hit rate over 60% and only 2 questionable starters in Mayfield and Tua of those 3. I found you 8 true franchise QB's and 2 regular starters in 4 drafts. Obviously way to soon to look at 21' draft. 4 years 8 absolute franchise guys and 2 starters on top of that. I have a total different definition of a franchise QB than you 2018 1 1 CLE Baker Mayfield 1 3 NYJ Sam Darnold 1 7 BUF Josh Allen 1 10 ARI Josh Rosen 1 32 BAL Lamar Jackson Only Josh and Lamar 2020 Burow Hebert Tua Love only Burrow and hebert Tua is no where close to a franchise QB. A starter is not a franchise QB. When you go from 2011 to 2020 my numbers are correct. You can pick and choose a year that was better in that time frame but over the last 10 years the numbers are the numbers. That said most of your Franchise QB's are going to be found in the 1st round by far, so if you're trying to get one you are going to have a better chance getting him in the first round. BTW Your 30% rate in your original text is correct by these numbers
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mocha
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Post by mocha on Mar 17, 2022 15:30:57 GMT -6
FA contracts are almost always WAY overvalued for what you get in tier 1. It's pretty rare you see a FA signing be a game changer. It happens on occasion when the situation is perfect, but most of the really impactful moves come via trade not FA. Do you remember how much we paid for Rieff and Remmers...neither was a stud. In fact Reiff was average at best, had a lot of limitations and Remmers was pretty much below average. Only FA's I can remember coming here in the last 20 years that had a true impact were 1) Farve 2) Linval and 3) Winfield 4) Cousins and we sign a lot of FA every year. Pat Pete was OK, but I still think we overpaid for what we got. My point is with most FA you wind up with a player that disappoints (See Pierce and Tomlinson) and can't play up to their contract and yet you are stuck with them for an extended period of time due to all the dead cap. So perhaps (I'm just spit balling) if they aren't able to trade away any of the Vets for any meaningful picks, and we have a ton of young unpolished players drafted for potential with high upsides but little film to go off of, the strategy is changing to one of "let's make some small tweaks, draft well and see who excels and who fits well in the new system and THEN we'll start making wholesale changes in 23 when the cap hits are less to unload and we know a whole lot more about our players and where our true holes are before locking ourselves into overpriced contracts for players we may not need or even want. I could be totally off....but it could very well be part of the discussion right now. Thoughts?? Hate to say it but your #4 impact player made the team worse than it was the previous year... Wrong again. The defense was at fault. Vikes had the lead in several games in the final minutes only to allow the opposing offense to score with ease. Get the facts right for Godβs sake. I donβt think Kirk is the best QB but he did not cost the team games last year. Rewatch and educate yourself a bit.
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