Cousins Future

Having comebacks is not the opposite of choking. Leading comebacks and choking, while mutually exclusive game by game, are not mutually exclusive tendencies across games. A person can do both. Choking is opposite of being clutch -- delivering in the high-pressure or crucial moment. Comebacks may have clutch moments, or the they may not. A person may choke in some clutch moments but deliver in others. That said, I don't think Cousins chokes very often. 

Similarly yards per completion are not the opposite of being a checkdown Charlie. Yards per completion depend both on the number of completions and the distance those completions go for, including YAC. Being a checkdown Charlie depends on the tendency to throw short of the down markers, and thus fail to pick up first downs, as a result of not getting sufficient YAC. If you threw every completion just past the down markers and got zero YAC, you would not be a checkdown Charlie but you wouldn't have great Yards per completion. If you throw a high percentage of balls that go for long yardage, as happens with good receivers and is true for Cousins-led Vikings, but you throw a quarter of your passes short of the down markers, then you can get lots of yards per completion and still have be a Checkdown Charlie. I do think Cousins has been a bit of a checkdown Charlie, but I think that is largely because that is what Zimmer and company wanted him to be. I think with different coaching that could disappear. 

I reject the premise that leadership equates merely to being able to lead 4th quarter drives. Leadership is about relationship with other players and particularly about decision-making: How fully do the other players respect your ability to make decisions? How well do they like you? How much do you project your identity onto the team?  Cousins doesn't seem to have as much of that as one tends to see with "great" QBs. I do think that Cousins lacks some of those leadership intangibles. He's a thinker, a student, who analyzes and prepares. He's not psychologically a natural leader. 

Whether he wins games is, as they say, an empirical question. Career W-L 59-59-2  W-L with Vikings 33-29-1. True, a lot of those losses are not directly attributed to him, but on the other hand he hasn't exactly carried his teams. Moreover, people judge this relative to the magnitude of the game, and Cousins has a reputation for winning games he "should" win, but not doing as well in the BIG games. Again, I think his record with the Vikings could have been significantly better under different coaching. 

I do think he has not had the best of situations. The Vikings were a better situation than the Redskins, but I don't think the offensive philosophy of the Zimmer did Cousins any favors. I think he could be a better QB than he was allowed to be. I'd love to see what this team could be with an coaching staff that wants to drive the sports car as it was designed to be driven, rather than maintain a steady pace. 

I lean toward a more substantial rebuild including trading Kirk (in this moment when his trade value seems surprisingly high) but a quick comment to your point 2 is that I think his marginal cost is lower than that, meaning, the main part I don’t mind about keeping Kirk on a $35m salary is that a serviceable replacement like Teddy would probably cost $20m, so I look at it like he has a $15m marginal cost. I guess we could assume that we’d go full in on a rookie but I just don’t see that in this draft… and the same forces driving kirks trade value up are driving the serviceable replacement value up. I think we are probably 10 players away from any chance at a deep run (min 7 new starter caliber defenders). That reallocation has to come from somewhere and it’s probably QB.

Kap,

1)  I tend to agree with your first comment.  Up until about 2 years ago I believe Cousins was a perennial choker.  If memory serves me...you are the psych guy so I'm not going to pretend to understand this topic better than you, but my experience is chokers are typically people who struggle to control their emotions, and typically have self doubt in their ability to overcome the situation.  They tend to obsess about what can go wrong and less on what can go right.  My experience is some people have an inherent ability to overcome these situations while others simply need an event that allows them to start to believe its possible and other just never get there.  I think Cousins is in the 2nd category.  I was  not a fan of his signing because every time I watched him play a game in Washington and the game was on the line.....he panicked and crumbled under the pressure.  But I think the comeback victory in the NO playoff game to win in OT was a turning point where he started to believe he could win in big moments and on a big stage.  I thought he started off rough in 2020 but then started to build on that NO momentum later in the year.  2020's team was bad, but he still grew exponentially as a QB in the last 2/3rds of the season.  When things started to go bad, he didn't let it overwhelm the situation like it did in the past, he just upped his game and said let's go.  The team was not good and it didn't necessarily translate to wins....but you could see him growing as a QB every game.  Then in 2021 he looked like a completely different QB.  Most of the comebacks he led in 21 were high pressure situations and he played some of his best ball against the best competition.  AZ, Cincy, Balt, GB.  So no....I agree he is no longer a choker he is embracing the challenge.    

2)  On the leader side, I will give you that it doesn't come naturally to him, but he also isn't Sam Bradford either.  Some people are rah rah leaders, others lead by example.  I'd put him more in camp 2.  I've played sports at every level and when you don't "Believe" in the guy leading you, your effort diminishes because you know there isn't really a point.  Where I disagree, is while it may not come naturally, I think he's earned the respect and trust of his teammates and they do believe in his ability to bring the team back and that is all you need to go all the way.  You don't mount that many comebacks in a season with "less than" effort by your supporting cast.  Furthermore, I'd argue Kirk did carry this team in 2021.  With the exception of the a few games, we did not run the ball exceptionally well this year.  He accounted for roughly 70% of the offense and had to put the team on his back repeatedly late in games to put the team in position to win and did so.   

3)  As far as Checkdowns I found a stat that measured all third and long plays over a 10 year window from 2008-2018 covering all teams.  It essentially stated that only 12% of all pass attempts are thrown at or beyond the sticks on 3rd and long.  So while we watch more Vikings games than others, the bottom line is that Kirk doesn't check down any more or less than other QB's on average, in fact, here is direct quote from PFF I found from an article they wrote on this very topic in 2020:  
"Kirk Cousins — often lambasted as a checkdown quarterback — threw a checkdown pass on just 3.8% of his third-down pass attempts, ranking 16th lowest among 41 qualifiers. Cousins evidently hasn’t been quite as conservative and risk-averse as some people like to suggest."

4)  I agree with your win/loss assessment to a degree.  There have definitely been games he has lost because of his play but there have also been a lot of games he has lost where he did everything right to win.  It doesn't help that in his time in MN his offensive line has been abysmal, it's been a constant revolving door at OC,  hasn't helped he has had a HC that won't communicate with him, it doesn't help that he's had a HC that refuses to keep his foot on the gas when they get a lead and it doesn't help to have a HC who coaches scared at the end of games.  Those are all items which contribute to failure to post W's.  In the first 2 years he was here, I'd 100% agree he did little to promote the success of the team, but in the last year and a half the light has gone on.  Kirk Cousins was not the reason this team failed.  The offense led by him was in the top tier in almost every important metric. 

I said earlier, I think he is like a Rich Gannon in that it took awhile for the light to come on, but this guy is just starting to play his best ball.  Allen and Prescott are all sitting with 40+M cap hits in 23 Mahomes is at 35M.  All 3 are 40M+ in 24.  Wilson, Stafford and Rodgers will get at least 35-40M .... and guys like Herbert, Murray and Burrow will break the bank when their Rookie deals run off.  I don't think you have to get Kirk down to 22M in 22 to make it work which means the cap in 23 & 24 not that high.

With Brady and Ben retired you have:  Allen, Burrow, Carr, Cousins, Garopollo, Herbert, Jackson, Mahomes, Murray, Prescott, Stafford, Wilson as proven starting QB's.  I think Jackson is too inconsistent but I think he sticks for awhile so and I also think Murray is too small and too poor a passer to be a long term answer in the league but for now I leave him in.  If for the moment I assume Rodgers stays in GB, Wilson stays in Seattle and Jimmy G stays in SF.  If so, Carr is the only one on this list that is a legit FA that is available.  If Rodgers or Wilson Leave, it just creates 2 new teams in need of QB as neither GB nor Seattle have a franchise QB in house.   This means there are 20 teams with ? marks at QB.  Of those 20 4 are hoping their guy pans out but we know statistically only 1-2 will make it if any at all.  So that means there are really18 teams looking for a QB.  See Below    


Atlanta - Ryan is there for now but they need a QB, he's on life support.  
Detroit - Getting by
Titans - Getting by

New England - Hopeful Jones is the answer but too early to tell.
Bears - Hopeful...showed some promise but a long way from sure thing.
Jax - Hoping but not looking good thus far
Jets - Hoping but not looking good thus far

Browns - Need a QB
Steelers - Need a QB
Miami - Needs a QB
Texans - Need a QB
Colts - Need a QB
Broncos - Need a QB
Raiders - Need a QB
Giants - Need a QB
Eagles - Need a QB
Commanders - Need a QB
Carolina - Needs a QB
Saints - Need a QB
Tampa - Needs a QB

So if you look at recent drafts....even ones where talent was projected as high, at best 1 star is coming out per year.  So I just don't see in this instance where trading away the most important position on the team, who is playing at an exceptionally high level makes sense when their are 18 teams hoping shopping for a QB and only really 1 to be had.  I don't think people understand how big of an impact the retirement of Rivers, Ben, Brady, Brees are having on the QB market.  I believe the FO could potentially work a deal that would allow them to keep both Cousins and Hunter if they wanted (it would come at the cost of some older vets...but it is doable).  But frankly given the backdrop, I'd trade away Hunter before I'd trade away Cousins and it isn't because I think Cousins is better at his position than Hunter is at his.  It is because it is a lot easier to find Edge rushers through the Draft and FA that can play at a high level than it is to find a QB that can do the same.  If you look across the NFL, there are a lot more edge rushers that are really impactful than QB's, not to mention the success rate through the draft is much higher as well.  Bottom line, Hunters production is easier to replace even if you don't get to the same pinnacle of success.  

This in not the time to give up on a top 10 QB.  There is a massive shortage of talent in the league and there is little to no talent in the draft!  Even if 2023's draft has 3 players that scout as solid 1st Rd talents, the odds of you getting one are slim to none as you have 18 teams fighting for 1-3 players.  And if this years playoffs showed you anything it's that you have to have at least a good QB to win.   

Kirk isn't getting a fully guaranteed contract at age 34 from anyone ... AND he wants to retire a Viking.  So if they were smart they'd do a 4 year extention (22/23/24/25) with only a portion guaranteed and prorate the salary over 4 years vs. 3 and have little to no dead cap in 25.  Now they have outs at the end if his play falls off.  This makes him more affordable gives us plenty of cap room in 2022 and still keeps him right in the range of everyone else in 23 and 24.  It also ups his value in a trade.  You could actually structure this a number of different ways depending on how your rebuild plans are designed.  As I mentioned earlier, we have almost no high value renewal contracts coming up for the next 2 years and all the H$ vets will be gone by 23/24.  No more Harry, no more Theilen, no  more Kendricks and no more PatPete (assuming we bring him back).  We will be swimming in Cap space.  So you could go very cheap in 22 and push numbers higher in the future when the cap space is large or you could take on more cap this year and lower the base salaries in 23 and 24.  Anyway you slice it, his numbers would be inline with the numbers below. 


2023 Cap Hits QB (Rounded)            
-Mahomes $47M
-Prescott $45M
-Ryan $44M
-Watson $42M
-Wilson $40M
-Allen $39M
-Tannhill $36M

2024 Cap Hits                                    

-Dak $48M
-Mahomes $44M
-Allen  $42M
-Watson$37M

That doesn't factor what Wilson, Rodgers, Stafford, Herbert will make on next contracts.  Like it or not...it is the going price for the position.    

Obviously we disagree on the first to items.  I've clearly stated my case and think there is no doubt he was a top 10 QB in 21.  But that is OK to disagree that is what makes boards like this enjoyable.  I don't understand the relevance of your 3rd item.  The fact that Dallas got to have him play on a rookie deal is irrelevant to where we go from here.  Past is done....all that matters is the future and these guys are all costing their teams a fortune.  Last I 100% agree that if he wants to retire a Viking he needs to meet them halfway.  I think Kirk is in a different spot today than he was in 18 and 20.  1)  He's made some money, 2)  I think after 4 years with Zimmer he has to be excited about McConnel, the familiarity and the fact that he can end his career playing for a coach that knows how to get the best out of him and will keep open lines of communication.   Can't imagine how much fun it has been the past 4 years going to work everyday for a coach that you know doesn't like you, didn't want you and won't talk to you.  I think he's at a different point in his career where he will appreciate more things about the job than just money alone.  There is stability for his family and kids, familiarity with the organization, comradery with his teammates who finally get him and the excitement of a refreshed culture for the first time in his career that isn't toxic.  Mix in I think Kirk will put more emphasis on winning now that he's learned how to do it and is closer to the end of his career.  He has to meet them halfway, but I think he's motivated to do so.   

 

a lot of those numbers are going to change between now and then. Thing with long contracts with phony years is you can keep adjusting the numbers. Kirk doesn't sign contracts with phony years.

Yeah Stafford and Burrow are big time runners...   wait, what?