eagerowl
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Post by eagerowl on Apr 17, 2024 15:58:22 GMT -6
Both things can be true at once: 1) I want the Vikings to take a swing at a 1st round QB 2) I don't want to Vikings to be one of those teams to trade away way too much to take that swing I say take one at 11 or take one at 23...trade up slightly to make it happen if the cost isn't too high. I don't even mind taking Penix at 11 if that's all that's left after the top 10. But let the Broncos or Raiders be the ones to bet the farm to get ahead of us for a mystery, which is all that any top QB in a draft is. I understand why people want to go for it and give anything to move up...I just hope we don't. Oh,Goodie! Sloppy seconds again! Didn't yourmama tell you to stay away from girls like that? Oh right, I forgot draft position determines success...it's been proven time and time again. How foolish of me. In any case, yourmama told me she IS a girl like that.
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RF54
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Post by RF54 on Apr 17, 2024 16:03:47 GMT -6
Gotta build through BPA! Cannot give up our draft capital for non franchising changing qb's. Look, I like that they signed Darnold and think he can have his best year as a pro, but they are CLEARLY going QB with everything they have. Darnold is on a 1 year contract, KOC and KAM have been outspoken talking about getting a QB. This is the year it ain't gonna be BPA
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tavike
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Post by tavike on Apr 17, 2024 16:17:52 GMT -6
Oh,Goodie! Sloppy seconds again! Didn't yourmama tell you to stay away from girls like that? Ah look at history 2023 (CJ Stroud head and shoulders above the other 2) 1 CAR Bryce Young 2 HOU C.J. Stroud 4 IND Anthony Richardson 2022 20 PIT Kenny Pickett
2021 (might have a case here as Lawrence is the class of the class)
1 JAX Trevor Lawrence 2 NYJ Zach Wilson 3 SFO Trey Lance 11 CHI Justin Fields 15 NWE Mac Jones
2020 (all pretty much equal will give you Burrow is tops)
1 CIN Joe Burrow 5 MIA Tua Tagovailoa 6 LAC Justin Herbert 26 GNB Jordan Love
2019 (Murray slightly leads this pack)
1 ARI Kyler Murray 6 NYG Daniel Jones 15 WAS Dwayne Haskins
2018 (Allen and Jackson are tier 1, Baker tier 2 and Darnold we can hope)
1 CLE Baker Mayfield 3 NYJ Sam Darnold 7 BUF Josh Allen 10 ARI Josh Rosen 32 BAL Lamar Jackson
2017 (Ah Mahomes and Watson (even with his legal troubles) clearly outclass Trubisky
2 CHI Mitchell Trubisky 10 KAN Patrick Mahomes 12 HOU Deshaun Watson
That is a damn good percentage rate of QB's hitting in the top 10. I'll take it.
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tavike
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Post by tavike on Apr 17, 2024 16:19:42 GMT -6
Oh,Goodie! Sloppy seconds again! Didn't yourmama tell you to stay away from girls like that? Oh right, I forgot draft position determines success...it's been proven time and time again. How foolish of me. In any case, yourmama told me she IS a girl like that. Draft position determines percentage rates of hitting on the qb. The higher the draft position the higher the percentage of hitting on the QB.
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Post by redbird87 on Apr 17, 2024 17:48:38 GMT -6
The OP is correct. Trading up at a kings ransom for a QB in the single digits is a losing proposition. In the last 25 years, there have been four quarterbacks drafted in the single digits that have won a Super Bowl. Of those four, they counted for six Super Bowl wins, with Peyton and Eli accounting for two wins each. The other two drafted in single digits that won Super Bowl didnβt win for the teams that drafted them. Those two would be Stafford and Dilfer.
Furthermore, if you look at that same 25 year period, Or 25 Super Bowls, there have been a total of 30 quarterbacks who played on either the winning or losing side. Of those quarterbacks only 10 were drafted in the single digits. So the myth that you have to pick a top quarterback to get a Super Bowl is foolβs gold.
Quarterbacks like Mahomes and Brady are unicorns in the football universe. Theyβre rarely seen and rarely come around. But even those two were not drafted in the single digits. Brady, of course, was a six round pick and Mahomes was drafted at number 10 being the third quarterback taken in that draft. What iβve tried to stress, is that if you actually look at the data, what really defines a quarterback success has more to do with the system they go to, the support staff around them, and the consistency at coaching. Clearly 2/3 of the quarterbacks that lead their teams to Super Bowls didnβt get drafted in the top nine picks of their draft however, if you look at the best quarterbacks over the last 25 years, the one common theme youβll find is consistency in coaching Brady consistently had Belichick as a head coach and did his best work with McDaniels as his offensive coordinator. If you look at Mahomes, heβs consistently had Reid and the same offensive system. If you look at Aaron Rodgers, he basically played the bulk of his career in the same system under the same head coach until the tail end. If you look at Drew Brees, all of his success came under same coach in the same system, Sean Payton. If you look at Peyton Manning, all of his success came in the same system under predominantly same coaching staff. Same with Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin I could go on, But Iβll stop there.
In this particular draft, there are no Quarterbacks that stand out as being sure things, even Williams has ? marks around him. After Williams, the rest, while talented, all have pros and cons and there really is very little that separates them. So If you think you have the right coach, the right system, and the right support staff why trade up? I think the better move is to stay at 11 and take the best player available, and if that player happens to be one of the quarterbacks that fallsβ¦.take them. Otherwise use this opportunity to draft top 10 talent outside of the top 10, because the race to draft quarterbacks, creates an opportunity to pick up some phenomenal defensive and offensive talent at 23 or at 11. Plus giving up next yearβs number one would be a huge mistake in my opinion.
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Vikeroo
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Post by Vikeroo on Apr 17, 2024 17:49:55 GMT -6
The OP is correct. Trading up at a kings ransom for a QB in the single digits is a losing proposition. In the last 25 years, there have been four quarterbacks drafted in the single digits that have won a Super Bowl. Of those four they counted for six Super Bowl wins with Peyton and Eli accounting for two wins each. The other two drafted in single digits one Super Bowl, But not with the teams are drafted them. Those two would be Stafford and Dilfer. Furthermore, if you look at that same 25 year. Or 25 Super Bowls, there have been a total of 30 quarterbacks who played in those on either of the winning or losing side. Those quarterbacks were drafted in the single digits. So the myth that you have to pick a top quarterback to get a Super Bowl is foolβs goal. Quarterbacks like Mahomes and Brady are unicorns in the football universe. Theyβre rarely seen and rarely come around. But even those two were not drafted in the top single digits. Brady, of course, was a six round pick and was trading up for the cost was not a ransom, and he was drafted at number 10 being the third quarterback Drafted in that draft. What iβve tried to stress, is that if you actually look at the data, but obviously the quarterback Hass to have certain traits and talents, what really defines a quarterback success has more to do with the system they go to, the support staff around them, and the consistency at coaching. Clearly 2/3 of the quarterbacks that lead their teams to Super Bowls didnβt get drafted in the top nine picks of their draft however, if you look at the best quarterbacks over the last 25 years, the one common theme youβll find is consistency in coaching Brady consistently had Belichick as a head coach and did his best work with McDaniels as his offensive coordinator. If you look at my homes, he consistently had the same coach offensive system. If you look at Aaron Rodgers, he basically played the bulk of his career in the same system under the same head coach until the tail end. If you look at Drew Brees, all of his success came under same coach in the same system, Sean Payton. If you look at Peyton Manning, all of his success came in the same system under predominantly coaching staff. Same with Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin I could go on, But Iβll stop there. In this particular draft, there are no Quarterbacks that stand out as being sure things, even Williams has ? marks around him. After Williams, the rest all have pros and cons and Thereβs really very little that separates them. So If you think you have the right coach, the right system, and the right support staff why trade up? I think the better move is to stay at 11 and take the best player available, and if that player happens to be one of the quarterbacks that falls to take them. Otherwise use this opportunity to draft top 10 talent outside of the top 10 because of the race to draft quarterbacks, we have an opportunity to pick up some phenomenal defensive and offensive talent at 23 or at 11 passing on plus giving up next yearβs number one would be a huge mistake in my opinion. Big Ben?
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Post by redbird87 on Apr 17, 2024 17:52:47 GMT -6
Oh, and for those who say weβve done best player available and itβs gotten us nowhere, our worst drafts have been when we drafted for versus actually taking best player available. We drafted Randy Moss when we already had Chris Carter, we drafted Adrian Peterson when we already had Chester coming off of a major year. On the other hand, some of our worst drafts have been when we drafted for Need. Ponder, Treadwell, whoever that guy was we drafted to replace Randy Moss. Taking best player available has rarely cost us. Not knowing who the best player available is has cost us as well.
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Post by redbird87 on Apr 17, 2024 17:55:59 GMT -6
The OP is correct. Trading up at a kings ransom for a QB in the single digits is a losing proposition. In the last 25 years, there have been four quarterbacks drafted in the single digits that have won a Super Bowl. Of those four, they counted for six Super Bowl wins with Peyton and Eli accounting for two wins each. The other two drafted in single digits one Super Bowl, But not with the teams are drafted them. Those two would be Stafford and Dilfer. Furthermore, if you look at that same 25 year. Or 25 Super Bowls, there have been a total of 30 quarterbacks who played in those on either of the winning or losing side. Those quarterbacks were drafted in the single digits. So the myth that you have to pick a top quarterback to get a Super Bowl is foolβs goal. Quarterbacks like Mahomes and Brady are unicorns in the football universe. Theyβre rarely seen and rarely come around. But even those two were not drafted in the top single digits. Brady, of course, was a six round pick and was trading up for the cost was not a ransom, and he was drafted at number 10 being the third quarterback Drafted in that draft. What iβve tried to stress, is that if you actually look at the data, but obviously the quarterback Hass to have certain traits and talents, what really defines a quarterback success has more to do with the system they go to, the support staff around them, and the consistency at coaching. Clearly 2/3 of the quarterbacks that lead their teams to Super Bowls didnβt get drafted in the top nine picks of their draft however, if you look at the best quarterbacks over the last 25 years, the one common theme youβll find is consistency in coaching Brady consistently had Belichick as a head coach and did his best work with McDaniels as his offensive coordinator. If you look at my homes, he consistently had the same coach offensive system. If you look at Aaron Rodgers, he basically played the bulk of his career in the same system under the same head coach until the tail end. If you look at Drew Brees, all of his success came under same coach in the same system, Sean Payton. If you look at Peyton Manning, all of his success came in the same system under predominantly coaching staff. Same with Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin I could go on, But Iβll stop there. In this particular draft, there are no Quarterbacks that stand out as being sure things, even Williams has ? marks around him. After Williams, the rest all have pros and cons and Thereβs really very little that separates them. So If you think you have the right coach, the right system, and the right support staff why trade up? I think the better move is to stay at 11 and take the best player available, and if that player happens to be one of the quarterbacks that falls to take them. Otherwise use this opportunity to draft top 10 talent outside of the top 10 because of the race to draft quarterbacks, we have an opportunity to pick up some phenomenal defensive and offensive talent at 23 or at 11 passing on plus giving up next yearβs number one would be a huge mistake in my opinion. Big Ben? Pick 11! 3rd QB drafted
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avguy
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Post by avguy on Apr 17, 2024 18:07:15 GMT -6
The OP is correct. Trading up at a kings ransom for a QB in the single digits is a losing proposition. In the last 25 years, there have been four quarterbacks drafted in the single digits that have won a Super Bowl. Of those four they counted for six Super Bowl wins with Peyton and Eli accounting for two wins each. The other two drafted in single digits one Super Bowl, But not with the teams are drafted them. Those two would be Stafford and Dilfer. Furthermore, if you look at that same 25 year. Or 25 Super Bowls, there have been a total of 30 quarterbacks who played in those on either of the winning or losing side. Those quarterbacks were drafted in the single digits. So the myth that you have to pick a top quarterback to get a Super Bowl is foolβs goal. Quarterbacks like Mahomes and Brady are unicorns in the football universe. Theyβre rarely seen and rarely come around. But even those two were not drafted in the top single digits. Brady, of course, was a six round pick and was trading up for the cost was not a ransom, and he was drafted at number 10 being the third quarterback Drafted in that draft. What iβve tried to stress, is that if you actually look at the data, but obviously the quarterback Hass to have certain traits and talents, what really defines a quarterback success has more to do with the system they go to, the support staff around them, and the consistency at coaching. Clearly 2/3 of the quarterbacks that lead their teams to Super Bowls didnβt get drafted in the top nine picks of their draft however, if you look at the best quarterbacks over the last 25 years, the one common theme youβll find is consistency in coaching Brady consistently had Belichick as a head coach and did his best work with McDaniels as his offensive coordinator. If you look at my homes, he consistently had the same coach offensive system. If you look at Aaron Rodgers, he basically played the bulk of his career in the same system under the same head coach until the tail end. If you look at Drew Brees, all of his success came under same coach in the same system, Sean Payton. If you look at Peyton Manning, all of his success came in the same system under predominantly coaching staff. Same with Eli Manning and Tom Coughlin I could go on, But Iβll stop there. In this particular draft, there are no Quarterbacks that stand out as being sure things, even Williams has ? marks around him. After Williams, the rest all have pros and cons and Thereβs really very little that separates them. So If you think you have the right coach, the right system, and the right support staff why trade up? I think the better move is to stay at 11 and take the best player available, and if that player happens to be one of the quarterbacks that falls to take them. Otherwise use this opportunity to draft top 10 talent outside of the top 10 because of the race to draft quarterbacks, we have an opportunity to pick up some phenomenal defensive and offensive talent at 23 or at 11 passing on plus giving up next yearβs number one would be a huge mistake in my opinion. Big Ben? Drafted #11 (Not in single digits).
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mjollnir
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Post by mjollnir on Apr 18, 2024 7:40:41 GMT -6
Oh right, I forgot draft position determines success...it's been proven time and time again. How foolish of me. In any case, yourmama told me she IS a girl like that. Draft position determines percentage rates of hitting on the qb. The higher the draft position the higher the percentage of hitting on the QB. Traditionally though if you give up a Kings ransom they do not pan out. The guys that are working out were drafted without a lot of maneuvering. In all over the last 15 years, there have been 46 QBs selected in the first round. It is not 50/50 yes the percentage of getting serviceable QB is much higher in the first round, but the smart money is not giving up the future (I will confess this years 2 first would qualify in my book as a good move, but nothing more no future picks.... maybe a 4th or later if it is Maye.) GRADE TOTAL PERCENT Home run 7 15% (Burrow, Allen, Jackson, Mahomes, Luck, Newton, Stafford) Solid result 3 6% (Lawrence, Tagovailoa, Herbert) Mixed result 9 19% Incomplete 4 8% Miss 23 50%
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Post by purpletrouble on Apr 18, 2024 11:41:04 GMT -6
Viking's need to take their chances on a potential franchise QB. It always a gamble, but they can't keep kicking the can down the road.
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Post by smoot4208 on Apr 18, 2024 11:48:57 GMT -6
Gotta build through BPA!Β Cannot give up our draft capital for non franchising changing qb's. I donβt want to give up next yearβs #1 but am ok giving up both of this yearβs 1st rounders. Its always going to be expensive to move up for a QB (unless you feel absolutely confident that the next year you will suck so bad that youβll end up with the #1 spot) but I view this as like buying a house. You can keep sitting on the side today and renting because homes cost too much, but next year, and the year after, the homes values are going to be even more expensive. At some point, you have to just pull the trigger knowing it sucks today, but it will hurt less today than in 2 years.
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Post by redbird87 on Apr 18, 2024 12:23:46 GMT -6
Viking's need to take their chances on a potential franchise QB. It always a gamble, but they can't keep kicking the can down the road. Nobody is debating that we don't need to take a chance on a potential franchise QB. But you don't have to give up 3 first round picks and or even trade up inside the top 10 to take a chance on a franchise QB! 2/3rds of all QB's that led their teams to Super Bowls were NOT considered or drafted as top 9 talents! Most weren't even the highest rated QB's in their class. If I put this another way, every year QB's are in high demand. And while sometimes its simply a bad QB year & none fit the bill, more often than not highly touted QB's go early year in, year out. Yet, 2/3rds of all QB's who've played in a Super Bowl in the last 25 years weren't considered top 10 talents or even the top QB's in their class! What makes you suddenly think all the scouts have it right in 2024? We have every bit as much a shot to find the right QB at 11 as at 3 or 5. And for all of you who are in the camp that Kwesi and KOC are somehow so much smarter than all the scouts over the last 30 years who've sucked at correctly predicting QB success, these are the same 2 that thought Mullins would materialize as a good backup and also went out and thought Dobbs was the best guy to get at the deadline for an offense his skill set isn't fit to run! Don't get me wrong, I think KOC is a very good head coach and teacher and I'd much rather have his input into the selection process than Zimmer, and I think his background will be supportive to the success of any of the QB's realizing their potential, but that is zero guarantee they get it right. All the love analysts and big boards have for Daniels, McCarthy, Maye, etc....the analysts said the same stuff or better about Darnald! Stay at 11 or maybe trade up 1-3 spots if the guy you really like is still there and you want to make sure you don't get jumped, but don't try to trade up into the top 5 if the cost is 3 1st! Stay at 11, see what falls to you and take the BPA!
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Post by frantheman10 on Apr 18, 2024 12:58:42 GMT -6
Viking's need to take their chances on a potential franchise QB. It always a gamble, but they can't keep kicking the can down the road. Nobody is debating that we don't need to take a chance on a potential franchise QB. But you don't have to give up 3 first round picks and or even trade up inside the top 10 to take a chance on a franchise QB! 2/3rds of all QB's that led their teams to Super Bowls were NOT considered or drafted as top 9 talents! Most weren't even the highest rated QB's in their class. If I put this another way, every year QB's are in high demand. And while sometimes its simply a bad QB year & none fit the bill, more often than not highly touted QB's go early year in, year out. Yet, 2/3rds of all QB's who've played in a Super Bowl in the last 25 years weren't considered top 10 talents or even the top QB's in their class! What makes you suddenly think all the scouts have it right in 2024? We have every bit as much a shot to find the right QB at 11 as at 3 or 5. And for all of you who are in the camp that Kwesi and KOC are somehow so much smarter than all the scouts over the last 30 years who've sucked at correctly predicting QB success, these are the same 2 that thought Mullins would materialize as a good backup and also went out and thought Dobbs was the best guy to get at the deadline for an offense his skill set isn't fit to run! Don't get me wrong, I think KOC is a very good head coach and teacher and I'd much rather have his input into the selection process than Zimmer, and I think his background will be supportive to the success of any of the QB's realizing their potential, but that is zero guarantee they get it right. All the love analysts and big boards have for Daniels, McCarthy, Maye, etc....the analysts said the same stuff or better about Darnald! Stay at 11 or maybe trade up 1-3 spots if the guy you really like is still there and you want to make sure you don't get jumped, but don't try to trade up into the top 5 if the cost is 3 1st! Stay at 11, see what falls to you and take the BPA! I hear your theory but what if KOC's view is that only 3 QBs in this year's draft have the potential to be long term playoff caliber starters. and the only way to get one of three is to trade up. What do you do? Stay at 11 and draft a QB that your coach doesn't think has the potential to be a long term starter? Pray that the guys falls which isn't likely. Draft BPA at 11 and 23 and then punt the qB pick to next year? The dunbest thing to do would be to sit at 11 and take a guy that is considered a reach just to keep picks and still get a QB.
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Post by purplevein on Apr 18, 2024 13:12:15 GMT -6
What do Trent Dilfer, Jeff Hostetler, Mark Rypien, Brad Johnson and Nick Foles have that Dan Marino, Jim Kelly, Fran Tarkenton, Dan Fouts and Warren Moon donβt?
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