Vikeroo
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Posts: 10,194
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Post by Vikeroo on Apr 28, 2023 17:40:28 GMT -6
MLB has a lower success rate for 1st rounders then NFL. A link I found showed that 66% of first round MLB picks make it to the major leagues. Given that it usually takes 4-6 years for a drafted baseball player to make it to the majors, that's roughly the equivalent of a first round NFL player getting a second contract, or at least 5th year option, with their original team. tbonesbaseball.com/the-odds-of-becoming-an-all-star/#:~:text=Approximately%2040%25%20of%20drafted%20players,signed%20during%20that%20time%20period. The 2020 draft class 5th year options aren't all set yet, but at least 5 are definitely not getting picked up, so far. The 2019 draft class had 13 players whose options were declined, or the players were released, and a couple of others were traded away. That's a success rate of 53% The 2018 draft class had 10 players whose options were declined, a success rate of 68.8% The 2017 draft class had 14 players whose options were declined, or who were waived. That's a success rate of 56%. So, two of the three years I checked, the NFL first round success rate was lower than the MLB first round success rate, and the average of the three years is 59.35%. Most of those guys will never break 5 WAR for a career. You are talking about 66% getting a shot vs near 100% getting a shot. About 2/3rds of NFL 1st rounders become regular starters (once again position dependent). I mean a lot of perceived 1st rd NFL busts have multi year starting careers.
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2012mom
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Posts: 4,366
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Post by 2012mom on Apr 28, 2023 18:35:08 GMT -6
A link I found showed that 66% of first round MLB picks make it to the major leagues. Given that it usually takes 4-6 years for a drafted baseball player to make it to the majors, that's roughly the equivalent of a first round NFL player getting a second contract, or at least 5th year option, with their original team. tbonesbaseball.com/the-odds-of-becoming-an-all-star/#:~:text=Approximately%2040%25%20of%20drafted%20players,signed%20during%20that%20time%20period. The 2020 draft class 5th year options aren't all set yet, but at least 5 are definitely not getting picked up, so far. The 2019 draft class had 13 players whose options were declined, or the players were released, and a couple of others were traded away. That's a success rate of 53% The 2018 draft class had 10 players whose options were declined, a success rate of 68.8% The 2017 draft class had 14 players whose options were declined, or who were waived. That's a success rate of 56%. So, two of the three years I checked, the NFL first round success rate was lower than the MLB first round success rate, and the average of the three years is 59.35%. Most of those guys will never break 5 WAR for a career. You are talking about 66% getting a shot vs near 100% getting a shot. About 2/3rds of NFL 1st rounders become regular starters (once again position dependent). I mean a lot of perceived 1st rd NFL busts have multi year starting careers.ย In baseball, you can have 18 year old HS players get drafted, while every NFL player has to be at least 3 years past their HS graduation year before they can get drafted, and most of them use that time in college, which is the minor league for the NFL.
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